The start of the NFL regular season is right around the corner, but don’t forget about the MLB! Baseball is hitting the home stretch, and there’s still plenty up for grabs. Each team has roughly 30 games left on their schedule, and there’s plenty of action to choose from on Sunday.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks:
The Pick: Reds ML (-105)
The Reds made a strong push for the playoffs earlier this season, going 18-9 in June and calling up uber-prospect Elly De La Cruz. Unfortunately, they have come crashing back to reality since then. They’re just 9-14 in August, leaving them on the outside looking in of the current playoff picture. They still have time to turn things around—they’re only 0.5 games behind the Diamondbacks in the Wild Card standings—but they’re trending in the wrong direction.
Fortunately, they draw a matchup vs. the Diamondbacks on Sunday, and they’ll send one of their most promising pitchers to the mound in Graham Ashcraft. He’s graded out extremely well from a pitch modeling perspective all season, ranking as the No. 1 starter in baseball in terms of Stuff+. That didn’t help Ashcraft much early in the season, but he’s started to see some on-field results. He’s pitched to a sparkling 2.58 ERA over 52 1/3 second-half innings, and he added 10 strikeouts in his last outing.
On the other side, Slade Cecconi will be making his third career start for the Diamondbacks. He’s pitched to a 2.93 ERA to start his MLB career, but his 5.62 xERA suggests he’s been really lucky. I like some regression to hit for Cecconi on Sunday, making the Reds a nice target at their current price tag.
Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners:
The Pick: Over 8.0 runs (-115)
Taking the over in a Royals game is a scary proposition. They’re one of the worst offensive teams in baseball, averaging the fourth-fewest runs per game this season. They’ve been even worse when playing on the road, with no team averaging fewer runs per game.
Making matters worse, they’re taking on Luis Castillo on Sunday. That’s about as tough as it gets from a matchup perspective, with Castillo posting a 3.15 ERA and 10.01 K/9 in 2023.
However, Castillo has shown some signs of regression of late. His ERA is up nearly a full run over the second half of the season, and he’s allowed at least four runs in two of his past four outings. One of those was against the Royals, who tagged him for four runs across seven innings two starts ago.
Fortunately, the Mariners should be able to do a lot of the heavy lifting here. They’re taking on Alec Marsh, who has been extremely exploitable this season. He owns a 5.56 ERA, 6.07 xERA, and 6.75 FIP across 43 2/3 MLB innings. Marsh has good strikeout stuff, but he’s struggled mightily with his control, and batters are doing significant damage when they put the ball in play.
Seattle also enters this contest scorching hot. They own a 176 wRC+ against right-handers over the past seven days, which is easily the best mark in baseball. The sharps are all over the over in this spot, and I’m happy to tag along.
Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants:
The Pick: Giants ML (+105)
Fading the Braves is another scary proposition. They’ve been the best team in baseball this season, leading the league with 84 wins and a +222 run differential. Their lineup is absolutely loaded, and they have a chance to break the record for most team homers in a season.
That said, their lineup is going to have their hands full on Sunday. Tristan Beck will make his first career start, and he’s been outstanding since the start of June. He’s posted a 2.85 ERA over that time frame, including four scoreless innings against the Braves last week.
Beck likely won’t last more than a few innings, but the Giants’ bullpen should pick up the slack. They own a collective 3.81 ERA this season, which is the 10th-best mark in the majors.
Meanwhile, the Braves will have one of their weakest starters on the mound in Jared Shuster. Shuster has some upside as a prospect, but he’s yet to make a mark at the MLB level. He pitched to a 5.00 ERA and a 6.19 xFIP across nine starts earlier this season, and he was ultimately sent back down to the minor leagues. He’ll be making his first MLB start since June 24th, and it’s not like he was tearing it up in Triple-A. He posted a 5.77 ERA and a 5.69 xERA, so I’m not expecting a ton of progression.
Ultimately, the Giants are worth a sprinkle as home underdogs.
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All odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds are subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.