There are 13 games on the MLB slate for Monday night. I’ll go over a few bets I like for tonight that you can sweat along with while watching tonight’s MLB action.
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San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals
The Pick: Padres 1st five inning run line -0.5 -120
Wow, really? Only -120?
We have one of the biggest pitching mismatches of the evening, with one of the current Cy Young favorites in Blake Snell going up against whatever is left of Adam Wainwright. The Cardinals continue to trot Wainwright out to the mound every five days in hope of him earning his 200th career win. Those 17 prior starts have turned into three wins with an 8.61 ERA with an xERA of 7.62. Currently two wins away from 200, Wainwright has allowed at least six earned runs in three of his four last starts. He’s simply not fooling opposing hitters and is topping out with an 87 mph sinker. That isn’t exactly going well, as the league is batting .410 off that pitch.
With this in mind, I’d be crazy not to be backing the Padres through the first five innings. Snell hasn’t been as “dominant” as he was during the months of June and July, where he allowed a grand total of five earned runs through 63 innings. His “regression” has included a month of August where he’s given up 10 runs through 23 innings. The Padres should be in the lead heading into the sixth inning.
Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants
The Pick: Andrew Abbott over 5.5 strikeouts +105
Abbott will be making his second start of the year against the Giants, a team he shutout through 8 innings on July 20th. He went over 5.5 strikeouts as well, as he struck out six. This Giants club provides plenty of strikeout upside and I’d expect Abbott to go over this number once again. He’s gone over this 5.5 total in eight of the 15 starts he’s made. If you look at the teams he’s gone under on, they’re most teams that have been tough to strikeout to begin with. The Nationals, Astros, Guardians and Brewers are all in the lower half in K% against lefties. The Giants are not, as they currently rank 7th. Grabbing this at +105 is a play I’ll be making for Monday night.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Pick: Phillies Team Total over 4.5 runs -125
The Phillies offense has been rolling lately. Over their last five games, they’re averaging 6.4 runs per game. Now they’ll take on the hopeless Angels and their big trade deadline acquisition in Lucas Giolito. He hasn’t exactly been the savior they were hoping for, as his tenure with the Angels has seen him post a 6.67 ERA, a .372 wOBA and a 6.12 FIP. His strikeout numbers are still high but everything else has been downright awful. It’s not as if he’s getting unlucky either, as he’s allowing a 38% hard-hit rate. I’d expect another high scoring affair from the Phillies, putting them over the 4.5 team total.
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