After picking up a win in the series opener on Friday night, the Philadelphia Phillies (70-58) look to make it two in a row over the St. Louis Cardinals (56-73) and remain in command of the NL Wild Card race. First pitch of game two of this three-game set is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park. It’ll be a battle of righties on the mound, with the Cardinals’ Dakota Hudson (5-0, 3.95 ERA) battling Phillies ace Zack Wheeler (9-6, 3.70).
Philly enters as heavy -218 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with St. Louis at +180. The run total is set at 8.5.
Cardinals-Phillies picks: Saturday, August 26
Injury report
Day-to-day: 2B/DH Nolan Gorman (lower back strain),
Out: SP Matthew Liberatore (low back tightness), OF Dylan Carlson (lingering ankle soreness, oblique strain), OF Lars Nootbaar (lower abdomen contusion), SP/RP Jake Woodford (right shoulder strain)
Phillies
Out: OF Cristian Pache (right elbow inflammation/hip tightness), SP Ranger Suárez (right hamstring strain)
Starting pitchers
Dakota Hudson vs. Zack Wheeler
Thrust into the rotation as the Cardinals rotation just needed warm bodies amid a lost season, Hudson has been a pleasant surprise, with a 3.75 ERA so far this month. The righty is now throwing his slider nearly half the time, and it’s not hard to see why with a swinging-strike rate well over 20%. That’s the biggest reason why he’s thrown three quality starts in his last four outings.
Wheeler remains a rock-solid option atop Philly’s rotation, even if we haven’t seen him quite take off the way we expected him to after a sensational 2022 season. The righty has gone at least six innings in each of his last eight starts, with a 3.43 ERA over that span. He gave up four runs on seven hits across seven frames in a loss to the Nationals last weekend, in what was sort of a microcosm of his year so far: pretty good, but less than what the Phillies were expecting from their frontline ace. Wheeler’s fastball remains among the very best in baseball, and his slider has a whiff rate north of 40%, but he’s yet to really put it all together despite an incredible arsenal.
Over/Under pick
Both of these offenses fall in the top 10 in baseball against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks, but I’m still banking on something of a pitcher’s duel in this spot. Wheeler has allowed more than three runs just once in his last seven starts, while Hudson appears to have found something with his new slider-heavy approach. If they both continue their recent form — and I think they’ll both pitch well again on Saturday — we should hit this under.
Pick: Under 8.5
Moneyline pick
The Cardinals have just about packed it in, while the Phillies are trying to mount a second consecutive charge to the NL pennant. Hudson has been good of late, but Philly still has the advantage on the mound and a hotter lineup at the plate — particularly from the left side, with Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh and Jake Cave all mashing righties this month. I think they’ll create just enough run support to get Wheeler a win.
Pick: Phillies -218
