The Los Angeles Angels (61-67) and New York Mets (59-69) will do battle Friday night as two of the more disappointing teams in baseball. The Mets will send Kodai Senga (10-6, 3.19 ERA) to the mound, while lefty Patrick Sandoval (6-10, 4.08) goes for the Angels. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET.
New York enters as -166 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Los Angeles checks in at +140. The run total is set at 8.
Angels-Mets picks: Friday, August 25
Injury report
Angels
Day-to-day: SP/DH Shohei Ohtani (torn right UCL; will still hit)
Out: SS Zach Neto (lower back inflammation), 1B C.J. Cron (low back inflammation), OF Mike Trout (pain in left hand), RP Chris Devenski (right hamstring strain)
Mets
Out: OF Starling Marte (right groin strain), INF Mark Vientos (left wrist tendinitis), INF Luis Guillorme (right calf strain)
Starting pitchers
Patrick Sandoval vs. Kodai Senga
After a strong July, Sandoval has been shaky over his last couple of starts, with 11 runs allowed (six earned) with 11 hits and a whopping nine walks in just 7.1 innings of work. As that walk number indicates, control continues to be an issue for the lefty: His walk rate ranks in the bottom 20 percent of the league, and he’s handed out at least three free passes in five of his last seven starts. When he’s throwing strikes and keeping his changeup down (.172 BAA, 42.2% whiff rate), he can be very effective, but finding consistency has been a struggle for the 26-year-old.
Senga is in the midst of one of his best months in the Major Leagues, as he’s tallied a 3.28 ERA across four August starts and is coming off a start where he allowed just one run on two hits in seven innings against the St. Louis Cardinals. Senga ranks in the 81st percentile in expected slugging, the 81st percentile in strikeout rate and the 71st percentile in expected batting average, and when his ghost fork is cooking, he has frontline potential.
Over/Under pick
Senga has been pitching well of late, and Ohtani is seemingly unlikely to be in the lineup tonight as he and the Angels decide how to handle his UCL tear. Still, I’m taking the over here: This Mets offense has been hot of late, and Sandoval is vulnerable to crooked numbers if his command isn’t right. This is too low of a number, even if Senga has the potential to dominate.
Pick: Over 8
Moneyline pick
Both of these teams are hard to trust here, but I’m going to give the Mets the benefit of the doubt. With Ohtani hampered, their lineup is better and they’re likely to have the better pitcher on the mound.
Pick: Mets