Division leaders hook up in the Midwest as the Minnesota Twins open up a series at home against the Texas Rangers on Thursday.
Texas Rangers vs. Minnesota Twins (-120, 8.5)
Getting the start on the mound for Texas is Andrew Heaney, who enters having allowed three runs or fewer in each of his past five starts, but he has also pitched a total of five innings in his past two starts and has allowed his fair share of home runs.
For the season, Heaney has a 4.27 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 3.7 walks per nine innings allowed — and has totaled 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings, his lowest amount since the 2018 season. On top of that, he’s posted a 4.72 fielding independent.
The recent lack of length has also put a strain on a Rangers bullpen that has been a weak point for the team, ranking 24th in ERA compared to the Twins, who rank 16th in ERA.
For the Twins, Pablo López gets the start, one of the league’s hottest pitcher in August, allowing one run across his four starts and 25 innings this month. The team has posted a 7-2 in his last nine starts.
Overall, López’s recent run appears to be sustainable as he has posted a 3.51 season ERA to go along with a 3.17 fielding independent — totaling 11 strikeouts and allowing 2.3 walks and one home run per nine innings.
While Lopez has to face the American League’s top-scoring offense in the Rangers, they don’t hit quite the same on the road, generating 6.1 runs and 1.7 home runs per game at home compared to 5.1 runs and one home run per game on the road. Overall, their batting average falls from .278 to .259.
The Twins also have some pretty big offensive home and road splits, entering Wednesday hitting .252 at home and .227 on the road while overall ranking seventh in the league in home runs per at-bat.
Since the All-Star Break, both offenses have been relative equals with the Twins averaging five runs per game and the Rangers just under 5.1 runs per game, but with the way Lopez has pitched in August, the Twins will win Thursday’s series opener.
The Play: Twins -120
