Football is upon us, and it’s time to start cranking out some plays in the futures markets available on DraftKings Sportsbook. I haven’t put out any unders on season-long player props yet, but I’m going to start putting out a handful now. My first play is on a quarterback that I don’t think has a very good chance to make it through the 2023 season.
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Matthew Stafford UNDER 3700.5 Passing Yards (-110) — 2-units
Back in his prime in Detroit, following all the injuries, Stafford went through a stretch where he played all 16 games eight seasons in a row. He threw for over 3,700 yards in all of them. We know what Stafford was capable of, and we saw that upside in his first season in Los Angeles, when he helped lead the Rams to the Super Bowl. That team was loaded across the field, and Stafford managed over 4,800 passing yards in the 17 regular season games.
However, Stafford and the Rams both going all-in for that championship very well might have been the last we see of the former No. 1 overall pick in his prime. Stafford tried to play through an elbow injury in 2022, but only managed to get through parts of nine games (finishing with just over 2,000 passing yards). Outside of the injury the QB was battling, the talent drop-off the Rams were undergoing the year after their Super Bowl victory was obvious — with the offensive line becoming one of the biggest issues with the roster.
Now, at age 35, Stafford is still dealing with that throwing elbow injury entering his 15th NFL season. Maybe if another Super Bowl was on the line, Stafford could find a way to dig deep this season and gut it out. If you told me he was going to stay healthy in 2023 alongside Cooper Kupp, I’d say he’s due for over 4,000 yards. But I find that highly unlikely, and if the Rams have a tough start to the season, it’d be much easier to sit a banged up 35-year-old QB and try some of the younger options on the roster. With a win total set at 6.5, it seems unthinkable that Los Angeles will be playing for anything down the stretch, even if Stafford does last till December.
Between a very tough injury to play through, age and the direction of the team, I just don’t think it’s likely Stafford gets enough games under his belt to sniff this number.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
