We’ve been pretty good on our MLB plays lately, going 7-1 in the last three articles. That salvages the season as a whole after a terrible month of July, bringing our record to 51-48-1. Add in some looming Spring Training futures — I’m looking at you Diamondbacks and Twins — and things have been relatively successful so far in 2023.
Hopefully we can keep that going on a small slate on Thursday.
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Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
Orioles ML (-110)
In theory, I can understand why the Blue Jays have been getting as much respect in this series as they have from the DraftKings Sportsbook. Toronto is better than Baltimore in several key statistical categories to this point in the season, while on paper, they’ve also had the advantage in the pitching matchup for each game. Tonight is no different. Jose Berrios has been enjoying a bounce back campaign in Canada, pitching to a 3.39 ERA and a 3.95 FIP across 146.0 innings. Heck, if you lop off two horrible outings to begin April, Berrios owns a 2.84 ERA in his last 23 trips to the mound. Kyle Gibson, on the other hand, possesses a 4.97 ERA and has allowed a combined 13 earned runs in his past two appearances. Advantage Jays.
Yet, I find myself to compelled to bet the Orioles. Dean Kremer beat Kevin Gausman handily on Wednesday. That’s a microcosm of how these two teams have played the last five months. Not only is Toronto just 3-9 versus Baltimore in 2023, but its also 12-24 in all divisional matchups. Gibson’s surrendered only two earned runs in 13.0 innings against the Jays, including six one-run frames in an Orioles’ win back on July 31 — which is a symptom of a larger issue for Toronto. It simply can not score runs. The Jays have been shutout eight times since June 19, the most of any club within that span. Specific to the last two weeks, Toronto owns an underwhelming 88 wRC+ and a .138 ISO that ranks 26th in the league. On the road, in a tilt with the AL’s best squad, I’m fading Toronto.
Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins
Under 8.5 (-115)
I don’t think my logic will be too difficult to follow on this bet. Pablo Lopez has been untouchable the last two weeks. The RHP has thrown 19.0 innings and he’s allowed zero earned runs. If you want to take it back even further, Lopez sports a 0.84 ERA and 8.75 K/BB ratio dating back to July 25 — a stretch of five starts for the former Marlin. It’s not like this level of performance is completely out of nowhere, either. For the season as a whole, Lopez sits third among all qualified starters in xERA (3.09) and seventh in FIP (3.17). Though he might not be the first name that comes to mind when this term is used, Pablo Lopez is an ace.
I’m unable to heap the same amount of praise onto Andrew Heaney, who has been his usual erratic self in 2023, yet the veteran has registered a respectable 3.09 ERA and a 3.49 FIP in his last seven appearances. Heaney is also left-handed. An element that is crucial when projecting the Twins’ offensive success. While Minnesota has been a well-above average lineup when facing a right-handed pitcher this season — its produced a 108 wRC+ within the split — the Twins have struggled to just a 90 wRC+ when opposed by a southpaw. Not surprisingly, Minnesota is better at scoring runs when Edouard Julien, Max Kepler and Joey Gallo are in the lineup and have a positive platoon split.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
