After taking it on the chin from their NL East rivals in a shocking 10-4 blowout on Monday night, the league-leading Atlanta Braves look to get back on track in the middle game of their three-game set against the New York Mets. First pitch from Truist Park in Atlanta is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Tylor Megill (7-6, 5.53 ERA) will go for the visitors, while the Braves send rookie righty Bryce Elder (9-4, 3.46) to the mound.
Despite Monday’s loss, Atlanta enters as heavy -225 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Mets at +185. The run total is set at 11.
Mets-Braves picks: Tuesday, August 22nd
Injury report
Braves
Out: 2B Ozzie Albies (hamstring), OF Sam Hilliard (heel), SP Kyle Wright (shoulder), RP Jesse Chavez (shin), RP Dylan Lee (shoulder), SP/RP Kolby Allard (elbow), RP Nick Anderson (shoulder)
Mets
Out: INF Mark Vientos (wrist), OF Starling Marte (groin), INF Luis Guillorme (calf)
Starting pitchers
Tylor Megill vs. Bryce Elder
Megill is getting another shot at sticking in the Mets rotation with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer gone, but he’s hardly making the most of it, with a 7.20 ERA over three starts in the month of August — including getting lit up for six runs (five earned) on nine hits and a walk in 5.1 innings against these same Braves a couple of weeks ago. The righty is in the bottom five percent of all starters in expected batting average and slugging percentage, and his slider that was so effective last year has been crushed this season.
Elder has also struggled of late after a hot start to his first MLB season. His ERA sat at 2.45 at the end of play on July 3, but since then he’s pitched to a 6.37 mark over his last seven starts. He is coming off one of his best outings of the year, though, with seven innings of one-hit ball against the Yankees last week. He’s faced the Mets once before, allowing four runs on four hits (including two homers) and two walks in six innings of work in a win back on June 6.
Over/Under pick
The Braves have actually cooled off a bit at the plate over the last week — well, by their standards at least — scoring five or more runs just twice in their last six games. Still, Megill’s been lit up by just about everybody this year, including this same Atlanta team earlier this year. The Braves could hit this over all by themselves, and Elder’s recent shakiness — combined with a suddenly resurgent Mets offense — has me leaning the over despite an enormous number.
Pick: Over 11
Moneyline pick
Elder’s more than capable of putting up some crooked numbers of his own, but there’s just no way to trust Megill to even keep New York competitive in this spot. Even if the Mets get to Elder a little bit, it’s hard to see Atlanta not providing him with enough run support to snag a win.
Pick: Braves
