For almost 20 years, the only prediction you could safely make about the AFC East was that the New England Patriots would roll up the competition and easily walk away with the crown, likely winning the entire AFC, if not the Super Bowl, in the process. But that was years ago at this point. They haven’t finished better than third-best since 2019, and have only been above .500 once since then. Though Bill Belichick’s team made some moves in the offseason, it’s still hard to think that it was enough to push them back into competition in a loaded division.
The Patriots finished 8-9 last season, one game ahead of the New York Jets for third place in the division. The defense turned in a respectable effort, limiting opponents to an average of 20.4 points per game. The offense was strictly mid-tier, scoring an average of just over 21 points per game. That kind of output isn’t going to cut it in an AFC East with offensive juggernauts like the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. The Jets could be better by leaps and bounds too after adding Aaron Rodgers to an already-loaded group of offensive skill players.
Patriots best-case scenario for 2023
There’s a path for the Patriots to win the AFC East, but it’s a long shot. In fact, the odds of them taking a Wild Card berth are better bet, but even that’s a long shot given that they’ll be competing for one of two spots with those same teams in the division.
The best-case scenario for the Patriots this year is to scratch and claw their way to nine wins. The defense is strong enough to keep them in most games; they were 4-4 in contests decided by less than a touchdown last year. But in order to convert those to wins, they’ll need points.
Mac Jones is still the starting quarterback, which puts something of a cap on their offensive output. However, the Patriots did bring in JuJu Smith-Schuster a sure-handed receiver who can keep the chains moving. The addition of tight end Mike Gesicki gives them another plus pass catcher, though they could find themselves missing speedy playmaker Jakobi Meyers.
Patriots worst-case scenario for 2023
It could get worse for New England. They could slip into the cellar dwellers of old, the kind of teams that were a regular feature there a generation ago. The AFC is a brutal place to play right now, not only are there the established powerhouses like the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals, we can expect a bounce back from teams like the Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos, not to mention emerging teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars, and that’s not even including the aforementioned teams in the AFC East.
The Patriots’ schedule is brutal too. They open the season at home against the Philadelphia Eagles, followed by the Miami Dolphins, before road games against the Jets and Dallas Cowboys. They could be 0-4 before the leaves start changing. They’ll finish out the season against the Chiefs, Broncos, Bills and Jets.
A five-win season isn’t out of the question for the Patriots, and it’s probably a more likely outcome than nine wins at this point.