The Green Bay Packers head into the 2023 NFL season with a major change at quarterback. Future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers is out, and former first-round pick Jordan Love is in. The supporting cast hasn’t shuffled much except for some fringe moves, which means the outcome for this season will ultimately fall on Love’s arm.
The Packers are coming off an 8-9 season marred by inconsistent play on both sides of the ball. The team had a chance to qualify for the playoffs in the final game of the season but lost a primetime home game to the Detroit Lions. It was a previously unthinkable result for the Packers given the stakes, but accurately reflected the season as a whole.
Here’s a look at Green Bay’s best and worst scenarios for the upcoming year. At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Packers are +6500 to win the Super Bowl, +3000 to win the NFC, +400 to win the NFC North, and +180 to make the playoffs.
Packers best-case scenario for 2023
After back-to-back MVP seasons, Rodgers dropped off significantly during the 2022 season. During the five-game losing streak in the middle of the year, he completed just 61% of his passes with eight touchdowns and four interceptions. Even in the four-game winning streak near the end of the season, Rodgers completed only 64% of his throws with four touchdowns and two interceptions. In his two MVP seasons combined, Rodgers completed 69.8% of his throws with a TD:INT ratio of 9.4:1.
In short, the diminished quarterback play was the primary reason for the team’s struggles. The best-case scenario for Green Bay is Love becomes an impact player from his first snap. His development behind Rodgers is real. He has several game-winning drives, and the young supporting cast takes a collective leap together. Christian Watson becomes one of the top emerging receivers in the league, Romeo Doubs becomes a solid No. 2 and Aaron Jones stays healthy to deliver a career year. The defense, after finishing 17th in points allowed, 17th in yards allowed and 12th in turnovers in 2022, lives up to its billing as a top-5 unit. That combination allows the Packers to win the NFC North and win a playoff game or two.
Packers worst case scenario for 2023
Many felt Love was a reach in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, and he shows this with his inconsistencies as a starter. Jones struggles with injuries, while Watson and Doubs plateau due to Love’s erratic play. The defense underwhelms again and gets put in tough situations routinely with the offense failing to muster much. All this leads to a campaign that ends with less than six wins, leading to fans questioning Love, head coach Matt LaFleur and general manager Brian Gutekunst.
Meanwhile, Rodgers leads the Jets to a Super Bowl title.