There are 10 games on the MLB slate for Monday night. I’ll go over a few bets I like for tonight that you can sweat along with while watching tonight’s MLB action.
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Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Pick: Rangers Team Total through 1st Five Innings over 2.5 -115
The Rangers begin a long nine-game road trip in Arizona tonight. Up first will be a matchup against rookie Slade Cecconi, who’ll be making his fourth appearance and third overall start in the bigs. Since being called up, he’s primarily used a slider and fastball almost evenly. He’s thrown his slider 49% of the time and a fastball 46% of the time. These are two pitches the Rangers destroy. Their projected lineup (with Adolis Garcia) has a combined .379 wOBA with only a 22.6% K% against sliders and a .365 wOBA with a 24.7% K% against the fastball. Cecconi has allowed a ton of hard contact through his first 10.1 innings at 42%. I’d expect the Rangers to jump out to a quick start against the rookie and go over their 2.5 team total through the first five innings.
Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox
The Pick: Luis Castillo to record a win Yes -115
The Mariners are rolling right now. They’ve gone 14-4 in the month of August and are coming off an impressive sweep against division rival Astros. Currently riding a six-game winning streak, I’m looking to back their ace in tonight’s matchup against the lowly White Sox. While the Mariners are -185 on the moneyline, I’m fine with taking Castillo to win instead against a lineup that simply cannot hit righties. The projected lineup for tonight has a combined .286 wOBA against righties and they don’t take many walks either with a 5.7% BB%. After starter Emerson Hancock left with an injury yesterday, the bullpen could use a rest tonight after covering 7 innings with seven different relievers. Castillo puts himself in a position to earn a win, going at least six innings in nine of his last 10 starts.
Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros
The Pick: Red Sox Team Total over 4.5 runs +105
Cristian Javier is set to take the mound tonight against the Red Sox. He’s really been struggling lately, especially in the second-half of the season. Through 31 innings, Javier has a .323 wOBA with a 5.78 FIP and 36% hard-hit rate allowed. He’s not going deep into games either, as he’s yet to complete more than 5.2 since July 15th. This is not a situation where the Astros can afford to go into the bullpen early again, as Hunter Brown was knocked out of yesterday’s game after just 2.2 innings pitched. The Red Sox, meanwhile, have been crushing if offensively. Coming off a three-game sweep of the Yankees, they averaged 7.3 runs per game in that three game series.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
