The Texas Rangers (72-51) are hoping to avoid a surprising home sweep at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers (67-57) as these two division leaders wrap up their three-game weekend set on Sunday. First pitch from Globe Life Park in Arlington is set for 2:35 p.m. ET. Righty Adrian Houser will go for Milwaukee, while the Rangers turn to Max Scherzer to help stop their losing skid.
Luckily, three losses in a row haven’t cost Texas much in the AL West race, as they still lead the rival Astros by 2.5 games — although the streaking Mariners are now breathing down their neck as well. They’ll wrap up their homestand today before heading out on the road beginning with three games in Arizona against the Diamondbacks. Milwaukee, meanwhile, has now stretched its NL Central lead to three games over the Cubs and Reds, as they get set to head home next week for three games against the Twins.
Texas enters as heavy -205 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Brewers at +170. The run total is set at 8.5.
Brewers-Rangers picks: Sunday, August 20
Injury report
Brewers
Out: 1B Rowdy Tellez (arm, finger), DH Jesse Winker (back), SP Julio Teheran (hip), SP/RP Aaron Ashby (shoulder), OF Garrett Mitchell (shoulder), 1B/DH Darin Ruf (knee)
Rangers
Out: SP Nathan Eovaldi (forearm), 3B Josh Jung (thumb)
Starting pitchers
Adrian Houser vs. Max Scherzer
Houser was crucial for the Brewers as they’ve weathered injury to Brandon Woodruff and Aaron Ashby, but the righty has struggled of late, with a 6.20 ERA over his last four starts. Throwing his sinker nearly 50% of the time, the righty is heavily reliant on pitching to contact and hoping to convert those balls in play into outs, something that hasn’t worked out in his favor of late despite a healthy ground-ball rate.
Scherzer has been everything the Rangers could’ve asked for when they acquired him at the trade deadline, with a 3-0 record, 1.80 ERA and 26 Ks in 20 innings over three starts in the Lone Star State. He may not have quite the velocity he had at his peak, but his slider remains an absolute monster, and his arsenal is as deep as anyone in the game. He faced the Brewers twice before this season as a member of the Mets, giving up five runs on eight hits in 5.1 innings way back in April before throwing six innings of two-run ball with nine Ks on June 29.
Over/Under pick
The Rangers have been awfully hard to predict on offense, with totals of 1, 8, 0, 7, 12, 2, 9 and 2 over their last eight games. Desperately needing a win against a pitcher who lacks overpowering stuff, though, I’m banking on Texas to bust out the bats in this spot, as Houser has allowed 15 runs over his last four starts. The problem, however, lies on the other side, as I don’t have faith in Milwaukee to do enough damage against an in-form Scherzer for us to hit this number.
Pick: Under 8.5
Moneyline pick
Texas really, really needs this game, and with their new ace on the hill, I think they get it. Houser doesn’t have the sort of stuff needed to navigate this Rangers lineup, and Scherzer should feast on a Brewers lineup that ranks in the bottom five in baseball against righties so far this month.
Pick: Rangers
