The Miami Marlins are in the thick of a competitive National League Wild Card chase and have a tough test on Friday to improve their standing as they are on the road facing the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-148 8.5)
Reigning Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara gets the start at pitcher for the Marlins and has been alternating good and bad starts seemingly all season, entering having allowed at least four earned runs in nine of his last 17 starts, posting a 4.09 ERA overall this season with 7.7 strikeouts to 2.3 walks per nine innings with a 3.79 fielding independent.
Alcantara is backed up by a Marlins offense that overall this season is third in the league in batting average but are last in runs per game among National League teams at 4.1 per game.
Much of the Marlins season data is currently misleading given the trade deadline acquisitions of the team, bringing in power hitters Jake Burger and Josh Bell, who have a combined 42 home runs this season to help a core that is 28th in the league in home runs per game.
The acquisitions have paid off thus far with the Marlins entering in six of their last seven games and their home runs per at-bay rate is up nearly 50 percent, with a season mark of a home run on 2.5% of at-bats this season and on 3.7% of at-bats in the month of August.
The Marlins will look to keep swinging hot bats against Los Angeles Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin, who has surrendered at least four runs in seven of his last 10 starts, supplying a a 4.24 ERA, which is still lower than his 4.78 fielding independent.
Fortunately for Gonsolin, he is backed by a lineup that is second in the National League in runs, on-base percentage, and home runs with the league’s highest amount of walks per game.
Though the Dodgers have the best bullpen ERA in the National League since the All-Star Break, the are overall just 17th in the league in bullpen ERA while the Marlins are 19th in this category.
With the Marlins lineup delivering more pop recently coupled with a pair of mediocre bullpens and a pair of starters that have not duplicated their 2022 success, Friday’s series opener sets up for plenty of offense.
The Play: Marlins vs. Dodgers Over 8.5
