Football is upon us, and it’s time to start cranking out some plays in the futures markets available on DraftKings Sportsbook. This one is a bit more unique of a market, targeting a team that I dislike in their division, and betting them to finish dead last.
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Las Vegas Raiders Division Standings: 4th (-150)
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I slept on this one while I took some time off over the summer, and in the process, the number here moved from -130 to -150. I’m going to follow the money here, and play this despite missing the best number.
The Raiders managed to finish third in the division last season, but that was with a 6-11 record (and you may recall the Patriots gift wrapped them one of the wildest wins you’ll ever see). As you’ll read in some of my upcoming articles, I’m high on the Broncos this season. I think Sean Payton and Russell Wilson can turn things around from that 5-12 record we saw last season.
The Raiders, on the other hand, are trending in the opposite direction. Josh McDaniels was dreadful in his first season at the helm, and now Derek Carr is out and Jimmy Garoppolo is in. While Jimmy G may still have something left in the tank, he has high injury risk, and is clearly the fourth-best QB in the AFC West.
Vegas might be able to score some points with a fully healthy offense (Davante Adams is also already dinged up), but the defense looks poised to be gashed this season, particularly by the high-powered teams in the division.
The Raiders win total is set at 6.5 this season, juiced -130 to go under once again. That’s a full two wins clear of the Broncos at 8.5, looking at -110 each way. That’s a pretty big gap in expectations, especially when the other two teams in the division are considered Super Bowl contenders with franchise quarterbacks — Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs and Justin Herbert with the Chargers.
It would take some major injuries or bad luck for any of these other teams to drop down to the level of competition the Raiders grade out to be — and that’s if the Raiders can even stay healthy.
In terms of scheduling, things don’t get any easier for Las Vegas. The Raiders will play three of their first four games on the road against solid competition (Denver, Buffalo, LA Chargers), and mix in a home game against a Steelers team that you know will have a good crowd traveling to Vegas to cheer them on. If we go by the lookahead lines available on DraftKings Sportsbook for all 17 games this season, the Raiders are favored in only four games, all by two points or less. That means there essentially are no easy wins you can mark off for this team. Compare that to the Broncos, who are favored in the next fewest amount of games in the AFC West, being favored in 10 of their games.
Too large a gap in talent and expectations here for me. I’ll lay some juice on Las Vegas finishing last in the AFC West, and anticipate it’ll be by a healthy margin.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
