Every year going into fantasy football season, managers employ various strategies they find to be optimal. One of those strategies is ZeroRB, which basically means punt on RB until the later rounds. It’s easier to pull off in PPR formats than standard but can be used throughout any format. If you’re of that school of thought and need some RB sleepers who are going overlooked based on ADP (average draft position), you’re in the right place.
Fantasy Football 2023: Top RB ADP Values
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings
ADP: 56th overall, RB21
Where you should draft them: Around the same
You shouldn’t be looking to overdraft Mattison, but he makes a lot of sense as a ZeroRB target if you can get him somewhere in the seventh or eighth round of your draft. Mattison is boring, for lack of a better word. The Vikings decided not to bring back Dalvin Cook and believe they can proceed with Mattison as the lead back. If that’s the case, he should clear 200 touches pretty easily.
Minnesota also finished seventh in total offense last season. Mattison should get almost all the goal-line work and have a good shot at over 1,000 rushing yards and double-digit TDs if he can stay healthy. There’s not really any competition for carries unless you’re high on Ty Chandler, Kene Nwangwu or DeWayne McBride. Mattison also shouldn’t have much competition on third downs and for targets in the passing game. In 2021, he had 32 receptions for 228 yards and a TD. Mattison has a good shot to finish inside the top-20 RBs and could climb higher.
Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
ADP: 73rd overall, RB29
Where you should draft them: About the same
The Chiefs backfield has been a mystery for the past 4-5 seasons since Kareem Hunt left the team. It’s been a revolving door of young backs and veterans looking to reclaim some of their former glory. Because of that, Pacheco should be viewed as volatile. Still, the upside is there at the position among RBs. He’s being selected just inside the top-30 at the position but had a pretty impressive rookie season.
Pacheco finished with 830 yards on 170 attempts and nearly 5.0 yards per carry. From Week 10-18, Pacheco finished inside the top 20 at RB. Plus, he really didn’t get any work in the passing game. Pacheco still may not see many targets with Jerick McKinnon still on the roster, but there’s room for improvement either way. Pacheco is the ideal lottery ticket at RB in fantasy. Given the offense he’s on, if he leads the Chiefs in carries, over 1,000 yards and 8-10 TDs is very much in the realm of possibility. That would have Pacheco more in the top-20 RB group than just inside the top 30.
Jeff Wilson Jr., Miami Dolphins
ADP: 159th overall, RB55
Where you should draft them: A few rounds early
There’s also no reason to reach on Wilson late in the draft but he’s an OK flier. At this point, the Dolphins haven’t brought in a FA back. That still could happen and would impact how we approach Wilson’s stock. If the Dolphins don’t bring in anyone, Wilson and Raheem Mostert are going overlooked. Wilson had a pretty solid season split between the Niners and the Dolphins in 2022. Overall, he finished in the top 30 among RBs in fantasy. Wilson had 176 carries for 860 yards and five TDs, plus another 22 receptions for 185 yards and a TD. That’s over 1,000 total yards and six TDs. For a RB being selected this late, those stats are above average.
Again, this really only matters if Wilson ends up leading the backfield. He could split with Mostert, but he’s also older (31) and is being drafted slightly higher. Honestly, Mostert going at RB48 is also a decent value, particularly in PPR. There’s a scenario where the Dolphins don’t bring in Dalvin Cook or Ezekiel Elliott. In that world, Mostert and Wilson will have a lot of ADP value.
