Without a doubt, over the last five seasons, Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry has helped more than a few fantasy football managers run away with their league title. Even in an injury-shortened 2021, he still scored double-digit touchdowns and the second-best yards per game average of his career.
But at 29 years old, it’s fair to wonder if he can still be as productive.
2023 Fantasy Football: Derrick Henry Profile
Recap of 2022 season
Henry had another incredible season last year, rushing for 1,538 yards and 13 touchdowns. He even notched career highs with 398 receiving yards on 33 catches, doubling his career’s best single-season receiving numbers.
Updated Titans outlook
The Titans look like a middle-of-the-road team this year, probably on the wrong side of that middle if we’re being honest. But at least they have Henry to give their offense some fight.
The team drafted Tulane running back Tyjae Spears in the third round this year, and he’s expected to be Henry’s backup this season. It’s likely that he’ll see regular work as a pass-catcher, too.
This is the last year of Henry’s contract with the Titans.
Best-case scenario
Another 2,000-yard season is unrealistic, but it’s perfectly reasonable to think that Henry could again hit the 1,500-yard mark, if not a little more. Double-digit touchdown totals seem to be a foregone conclusion too, as long as Henry can stay healthy.
Worst-case scenario
Henry carried a pretty hefty workload last season. His 382 touches were the second most of his career, right after the 392 touches he had in 2020. That kind of volume can take a toll on a 29-year-old running back.
Even without an injury, it’s possible the Titans dial back Henry’s workload to give Spears more opportunities on the field. If that’s the case, it may be tough for Henry to rack up the yardage and receiving work to be a top-5 back. The worst case is Henry finishes somewhere in the back end of the top 20.
Prediction
Henry should, once again, be an automatic, every-week starter in fantasy football lineups this season. However, given his age and workload last season, it would be advisable to have a good backup plan in place.