As fantasy managers prepare for their upcoming drafts, a sharp strategy is to account for players that could realistically come back down to earth after an incredible season. The Colts’ Jonathan Taylor was a consensus number-one overall pick, only for injuries and inconsistency to result in him finishing as RB29, while potential sleepers like Hunter Renfrow boasted an average draft position of 71, only for him to end up as WR102.
Tight ends are no exception, and as one of the top-heavy positions in fantasy football, here are a few names to be wary of as you plan for your drafts.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
One day, Pitts might live up to his potential with a consistent performance on the field. The reality is that fantasy managers have been burned by drafting him high before, and it could be another case of the same story in 2023. Not only was he limited to 10 games last season due to injury, but in those limited appearances he averaged just 5.9 targets per game.
Darren Waller, New York Giants
The injury bug has limited Waller over the last two seasons as nagging injuries such as a hamstring tweak have kept him to just 20 games played in that period. He still averaged 9.4 PPR fantasy points last season, but that’s a far cry given that many have pegged him to be a top-five, maybe top-three tight end in the league.
Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals
There’s still no timetable for Ertz as he recovers from ACL surgery earlier this offseason, and there remains the potential of him being a cut candidate before the season starts. Ertz was excellent last season when healthy, ranking as the PPR TE4 from Weeks 1-10, but with Kyler Murray sidelined and Arizona likely entering a washed year, the Cardinals and Ertz appear as a duo to stray away from early in fantasy drafts.
Darnell Washington, Pittsburgh Steelers
Washington is an exciting prospect out of Georgia who was selected in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft by the Steelers, and he possesses the athleticism and upside that makes him an intriguing fantasy candidate. The reality is, however, that his impact won’t likely be felt in year one, if anything due to the sheer volume of talent and established players for Pittsburgh on offense. It’s hard to envision Washington overtaking Pat Freiermuth, who earned the second-highest target rate on the entire team last season (22.1%).
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
Kmet was the conundrum that irritated fantasy managers last season, as he finished with fewer than 10 PPR points in 75% of his game appearances, although he had an incredible two-week spell where he scored a combined 45.4 PPR points. With the tight end position being incredibly top-heavy in fantasy, you either use a high draft pick on a known product, or you go the efficient route of drafting in the later rounds for a player who you know will at least produce on a given week. With DJ Moore and Robert Tonyan now in two, there is no reason to believe Kmet can take a significant leap forward.