Derek Carr’s tenure with the Las Vegas Raiders has come to an end. He played nine years with the franchise, but they went their separate ways in the offseason. Carr signed a four-year, $150 million deal with the New Orleans Saints and looks to provide some stability a position that has been lacking since Drew Brees retired.
2023 Fantasy Football: Derek Carr Profile
Recap of 2022 season
Carr played in 15 games with Las Vegas last season. He was reunited with his college teammate WR Davante Adams and the expectation was that the Raiders would be able to contend in the AFC West. They ended up finishing the season 6-11, falling well short of their goals. Carr became the fall guy and was benched in the final two games in favor of Jarrett Stidham.
Updated Saints outlook
New Orleans awaits the fallout of what happens with Alvin Kamara for his off-the-field issues. Even if he misses some time, the Saints brought in other options in RBs Jamaal Williams, via free agency, and Kendre Miller, via the draft. Carr will lean on WRs Michael Thomas (if he can stay healthy) and Chris Olave, and TE Juwan Johnson in the passing game. New Orleans competes in a very winnable NFC South, and it isn’t egregious to suggest the Saints could win the division this year.
Best-case scenario
Carr finished last year as the overall QB17 in fantasy football. He loses one of the more prolific wide receivers to rely on but gains Thomas and Olave. If Carr can play with a chip on his shoulder and show that he has something left in the tank, he should be in line for a solid fantasy season. His best-case scenario is starting the season on the same page as his teammates and finishing the season as a top-12 quarterback for only the third time in his career.
Worst-case scenario
The worst-case scenario for Carr is that his performance shows that Las Vegas did the right thing in trotting out Stidham in the final two games of the 2022 season. If Carr is washed and doesn’t have it anymore, he will likely struggle with the Saints’ offense. Throw in the yearly injury to Michael Thomas and the regression for a reliable tight end, and Carr could finish as a QB24 or worse.
Prediction
I worry about the stability of the offense, but I think the Saints believe in Carr. He is a better option than Andy Dalton, who is now with the Carolina Panthers, and Jameis Winston. I probably think Carr is better than he is, but my prediction is that he finishes as the QB14-17 this season. If everything goes right on offense, there are tons of talent between Kamara, Williams, Thomas and Olave.