Green Bay Packers running back AJ Dillon has been a big piece of a strong backfield through his early career. He’s been the power back while Aaron Jones has been the speed back. Dillon is strong and has value when the Packers get in the red zone or have a 2nd or 3rd and short. Here we go over Dillon’s fantasy football outlook for 2023.
2023 Fantasy Football: AJ Dillon Profile
Recap of 2022 season
Dillon took a mini-step back in 2022 from a yardage standpoint in both rushing and receiving. He had 186 carries for 770 yards and seven touchdowns. He also had 28 receptions for 206 yards. That was a bit concerning because the previous season he had 34 receptions for 313 yards and two receiving touchdowns. He finished as RB26 by standard fantasy scoring.
Updated Green Bay Packers outlook
There will be a brand new look offensively for the Packers as Aaron Rodgers was traded this offseason. Jordan Love will be QB1 in Green Bay and he’ll have a number of young weapons he’ll be throwing the ball to, including Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. Green Bay did lose veterans Randall Cobb, Allen Lazard and Robert Tonyan in the offseason. Love starting may help Dillon have a bigger role on the offense if the passing game can’t get things going often enough.
Best-case scenario
Jumping to RB18-RB21 would be the best-case scenario in my opinion. I don’t see Dillon being able to rise much higher because Jones is the Packers’ clear RB1. Dillon could see more carries to take some pressure off Jones, who is 29 years old. We could also see the Packers score more on the ground with Rodgers gone and Love under center. More carries and more red-zone chances should lead to a strong fantasy finish for Dillon around the top 20 backs.
Worst-case scenario
Love and the passing game clicks. The Packers are able to throw the ball just as much or maybe even more. Opening up the passing game could take carries away from Dillon. There’s also a scenario where Jones flourishes and Dillon isn’t as productive, forcing Green Bay to lean on the RB1. Dillon could fall to RB28-RB30 if the passing offense takes off and Jones has a great season. The Packers could also be playing from behind, which would force them to throw the ball a lot more.
Prediction
I think Dillon finishes this season around RB28. I don’t think he takes a step back, but I don’t see how his numbers will improve a ton either. I could see Jones’ numbers improving a bit, but Dillon isn’t relied on as much.
