After four seasons with the Chicago Bears, running back David Montgomery left for another NFC North team this spring, signing a three-year, $18 million free agent deal with the Detroit Lions. Montgomery joins a remade backfield in Detroit, pairing with first-round pick Jahmyr Gibbs as the Lions’ 1-2 punch.
For fantasy football managers, the key with Montgomery is figuring out just how large his role in the committee will be.
2023 Fantasy Football: David Montgomery Profile
Recap of 2022 season
Montgomery is no stranger to committee work. He led the Bears with 205 carries last season, but quarterback Justin Fields was the team’s leading rusher and Khalil Herbert also had 129 carries. Still, Montgomery produced 801 yards and five touchdowns, with another 316 yards and a touchdown on 34 receptions.
Updated Lions outlook
For now, Gibbs is expected to slide into the pass-catching role once held by D’Andre Swift, leaving Montgomery with the early downs, similar to what Jamaal Williams did last season. Montgomery was dealing with a leg injury during spring OTAs, giving Gibbs the entirety of first-team reps, but it’s hard to put much stock in padless practices in June.
Best-case scenario
Williams had an outsized role last season, in part because Swift battled with some injuries at times during the season. Williams still recorded 1,066 rushing yards on 262 carries and 17 touchdowns.
Given the Lions’ investment in Gibbs, not to mention what he put on tape in college, he’ll probably see a little more work than Swift did last season. But given Williams’ numbers from last season, Montgomery should get plenty of work. It’s unrealistic to expect Montgomery to produce what Williams did last season but being in a committee on a talented offense that should run frequently is appealing. The best case is Montgomery looks too good not to see carries and it’s a split, plus he gets more of the goal-line work and TDs.
Worst-case scenario
The Lions have been pretty committed to a running back committee under head coach Dan Campbell, but it’s possible that Gibbs could assume a much larger role in that tandem, eating into Montgomery’s workload to the point where the veteran’s production is boom-or-bust.
In other words, there’s a situation where Montgomery just doesn’t see the field enough to merit a spot in fantasy football lineups.
Prediction
Montgomery is unlikely to get as many opportunities as Williams did last year, putting those kind of numbers out of reach. Still, with enough early-down and goal-line work, Montgomery should post numbers similar to, if not slightly better than, what he recorded with the Bears last season. That should make Montgomery a decent FLEX in certain matchups and a very strong handcuff to Gibbs.