Following a 9-8 campaign in 2022 that saw the Miami Dolphins reach the AFC Wild Card round, Head coach Mike McDaniel will look to build upon the success he had in his first season in South Beach. With a bevy of talent on the offensive side of the ball, running back Raheem Mostert should be a fixture in what has become a highly talented running back room.
2023 Fantasy Football: Raheem Mostert Profile
Recap of 2022 season
With McDaniel bringing his innovative run game offense over from San Francisco to Miami, it was the veteran Mostert that finished the season as the Dolphins’ leading rusher. He totaled 181 carries for 891 rushing yards and three touchdowns while adding 31 receptions for 202 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Mostert averaged his second-best fantasy points per game (10.5 PPR) of his career last season while finishing as RB25 in fantasy scoring.
Updated Dolphins outlook
Not much has changed offensively in Miami, as the biggest additions come on the defensive side of the ball with the trade for All-Pro Jalen Ramsey and the hiring of Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator. So long as quarterback Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy, it’s safe to say that there are serious expectations for the Dolphins to contend for an AFC title. One addition that will surely impact Mostert’s workload is the drafting of former Texas A&M running back De’Von Achane in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Best-case scenario
Mostert led the Dolphins with 181 carries last season, which was a healthy amount ahead of Jeff Wilson (84) and Chase Edmonds (42). With Achane now in the fold, I expect him to get a healthy amount of carries, but he boasts a smaller and lighter frame in comparison to Mostert. With that in mind, the best-case scenario would be for Mostert to continue to get the starting snaps and most importantly, the goal-line scoring opportunities as the bigger tailback.
Worst-case scenario
Achane quickly ascending into a starting role and taking away more snaps from Mostert would seriously hamper the latter’s fantasy ceiling on any given week. Additionally, he only managed to appear in double-digit games for the 49ers in two out of five seasons, so the injury bug has been a problem for Mostert. If he can’t work to stay on the field at age 31, his fantasy longevity will be seriously capped.
Prediction
Mostert will either just finish ahead of Achane or come seriously close to tying him as the leader in rushing for the Dolphins next season. Drafting a running back in the third round all but assures that McDaniel will lean on him heavily, which only correlates to Mostert losing touches as the season progresses. I think he’ll fit the bill as a FLEX in fantasy lineups, and should average roughly 9-10 fantasy points per game in PPR formats.