With the Washington Commanders entering the 2023 season with a new starting quarterback, questions remain as to how the offense will fare with the change. For the likes of tight end Logan Thomas, who is coming off a relatively quiet season, fantasy managers may need to proceed with caution when preparing for their fantasy drafts.
2023 Fantasy Football: Logan Thomas Profile
Recap of 2022 season
In his third season with the Commanders, Thomas caught 39-of-61 targets for 323 yards and one touchdown. While his total yards were an uptick from the season prior, his lone receiving touchdown represented a third straight decrease year-over-year. Thomas averaged 5.5 PPR fantasy points per game in 2022 while finishing as TE30 in total fantasy scoring.
Updated Commanders outlook
While the Commanders’ core of offensive talent remains unchanged with Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, and Brian Robinson Jr. returning, the most significant change comes at arguably the most critical position. Second-year QB Sam Howell sits atop the depth quarter, while veteran Jacoby Brissett joins as his backup. While Washington is high on Howell’s upside, he remains relatively unproven in Year 2.
Best-case scenario
There is plenty of uncertainty as Washington goes into the 2023 season with a new quarterback, but success for Thomas would equate to an uptick in receiving touchdowns. There are too many targets ahead of him on the depth chart, so the Commanders tight end won’t command the largest share of looks. However, Thomas can arguably be a safety net for Howell both in the short-yardage area as well as in the red zone, which sets him up to be a potential touchdown-dependent fantasy option.
Worst-case scenario
A regression to his 2021 level of production, in which he tallied just 196 receiving yards, would represent a nightmare scenario for fantasy managers. It’s no coincidence that his 2021 campaign coincided with an injury-filled season, but nagging injuries are the exact type of hurdle that Thomas does not need heading into the new season. Additionally, subpar quarterback play and subsequently leaning heavily on the run game would cut Thomas out of valuable fantasy scoring opportunities.
Prediction
There’s plenty of skepticism around how this offense will look with Howell as their starter, and while studs like McLaurin and Robinson should continue to produce for fantasy managers, that same level of confidence can’t be said for Thomas. While Thomas may not be a centerpiece of the offense, he should remain a viable option for fantasy managers in need of a plug-and-play at the tight end spot. At least 500 receiving yards and potentially five receiving touchdowns is a good bar for him to hit in 2023.