The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won back-to-back NFC South division titles. This was largely due to quarterback Tom Brady, but Tampa Bay also had one of the better wide receiver duos in the league in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The latter is heading into his seventh career season but will do so with either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask under center.
2023 Fantasy Football: Chris Godwin Profile
Recap of 2022 season
Last year, Godwin played in 15 games. This extended his streak of not playing a full season to four consecutive years. Still, he finished with 104 receptions on 142 targets for 1,023 yards and three touchdowns. Godwin technically added three carries for five yards, but hasn’t been developed into a backfield threat like other wide receivers in the league. Godwin finished as the WR20 in half-PPR scoring last season.
Updated Buccaneers outlook
Tampa Bay’s quarterback situation truly has the NFC South up for grabs. The Carolina Panthers have a rookie quarterback in Bryce Young, the Atlanta Falcons are expected to roll with Desmond Ridder, and the New Orleans Saints signed Derek Carr. The Saints have the best odds of winning the division at DraftKings Sportsbook, installed at +115. They are followed by the Falcons (+240) and Panthers (+380), with the Bucs coming up last (+750).
The Bucs didn’t do much on offense. Breshad Perriman left and Leonard Fournette wasn’t brought back. Rachaad White is expected to be the lead back while Chase Edmonds was brought in to add depth. Of course, Mayfield was added to compete at QB.
Best case scenario
The best-case scenario for Godwin is that Mayfield starts, and he becomes the quarterback’s safety valve. There is a good chance Godwin regresses in yardage, but he could make it up if he sees an uptick in receptions. Unless Mayfield finally becomes the player he was expected to be out of college, Godwin should be expected to take a step back. With that in mind, his best-case scenario is likely WR 26-30.
Worst case scenario
The worst-case scenario is a lot more grim. If the quarterback position is a revolving door this season between Mayfield, Trask and others, this would likely lower Godwin’s ceiling and output this year. It also won’t help if Evans continues to be the WR1 in the offense and is the primary red-zone threat. Evans had 27 fewer receptions for 101 more yards and three more scores last season in the same number of games. Assuming Godwin stays healthy, the worst-case scenario is that he falls into the QB36-40 range and is largely irrelevant.
Prediction
We should see the Buccaneers forced to pass more than in recent seasons. They are going with a young running back corps, and the quarterback situation doesn’t inspire confidence. We’re lower on Godwin compared to others and the passing attack should regress under Mayfield/Trask. Godwin should finish around WR32 this season.