The Chicago Bears have been mired mostly in mediocrity for what feels like the past 15 seasons. After finishing 3-14 in 2022, the Bears were awarded the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, which they traded to make improvements throughout the roster. Those moves helped the offense as a whole but the run game remains a mystery. For now, the Bears are operating with Khalil Herbert potentially as the lead back. Let’s take a look at his outlook for 2023.
2023 Fantasy Football: Khalil Herbert Profile
Recap of 2022 season
Playing mostly behind David Montgomery in 2022, the Bears used Herbert as the change-of-pace back and at times the lead. While Montgomery led the Bears in carries (201), Herbert had a better yards-per-carry average at 5.7 with 731 yards on 129 carries. QB Justin Fields broke out and led Chicago in rushing yards with over 1,000. Montgomery and Fields combined for 13 TDs while Herbert had four. Herbert also ceded targets to Montgomery, finishing with just nine catches for 57 yards and a TD.
Updated Chicago Bears outlook
The Bears moved on from Montgomery, who is now with division-rival Detroit Lions. WR DJ Moore was a part of the deal that involved the No. 1 overall pick in 2023. Chicago also picked up RB D’Onta Foreman to mix in with Herbert in the backfield.
Best-case scenario
Herbert wins the RB1 role outright during training camp and preseason. That would mean Foreman gets touches but only as a change-of-pace back or to give Herbert some rest here and there. Herbert should get all of the passing-down work Montgomery received. If Fields takes a step forward, it should help Herbert given his ability to find running lanes. The fact Herbert ran for 5.7 YPC in perhaps the worst team in the NFL last season is encouraging. Getting 100-150 more touches could translate to big fantasy numbers.
Worst-case scenario
Herbert fails to win the lead role and splits carries outright with Foreman. If that happens, we already know Fields is going to get plenty of designed carries and rushes on broken plays. That could mean the Bears go with Foreman on early downs and Herbert is the third-down back. It’s not the end of the world but would make Herbert nothing more than a FLEX option in PPR formats, not the sleeper back that can help you win your league.
Prediction
Herbert outperforms his ADP of just inside the top 40 among RBs and finishes somewhere in the top-25 backs in PPR. The Bears’ offense should be improved with Fields getting more experience and the presence of Moore. Even if Foreman takes away carries, Herbert showed how shifty he can be last season. Even if half of Montgomery’s production goes Herbert’s way, that would translate into over 1,000 yards rushing and an extra 200 receiving yards with 6-8 TDs. That would make Herbert a solid RB2 in PPR formats.
