The start of the NFL regular season is right around the corner, but don’t forget about the MLB! Baseball is hitting the home stretch, and there’s still plenty up for grabs. Each team has roughly 40 games left on their schedule, and there’s plenty of action to choose from on Sunday.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Texas Rangers at San Francisco Giants:
The Pick: Giants ML (-130)
The Giants will host the Rangers on Sunday, and they’ll send one of the most underrated starters in baseball to the mound in Logan Webb. Webb may not be a superstar, but he’s one of the best in the business at keeping runs off the scoreboard. He owns a 3.38 ERA and a 3.28 FIP this season, and those represent his worst marks over the past three seasons.
Unsurprisingly, Webb absolutely thrives in San Francisco. Oracle Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in baseball, and Webb has posted a 2.23 ERA in that location this season. Opposing batters have managed just a .262 wOBA against him in San Francisco, and the team has gone 28-12 in his home starts since 2021.
On the other side, the Rangers will turn to Dane Dunning. Dunning’s 3.21 ERA is similar to Webb’s, but his advanced metrics are significantly worse. He owns a 4.47 xERA and 4.06 FIP, and he’s shown regression over the second half of the season. He had an ERA of 2.84 before the All-Star break, but that figure has dipped to 4.40 since.
The Rangers do have a clear edge offensively, but the pitching matchup is enough to make the Giants a value.
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks:
The Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+120)
Brandon Pfaadt entered the year as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, but nothing has gone his way. He’s still looking for his first win of the season, and he’s struggled to a 7.16 ERA and a 6.24 FIP across 49 innings.
That said, the full-season numbers don’t tell the entire story.
Pfaadt has looked much better after getting recalled following a demotion to the minors. He’s been particularly good in his past two outings, posting a 3.55 FIP vs. the Giants and a 2.41 FIP vs. the Dodgers. Pfaadt was particularly unlucky in that matchup vs. LA—they had a .400 BABIP against him—but his stuff is more than good enough to succeed at the major league level. It’s only a matter of time before he gets in the win column.
Perhaps that will happen Sunday vs. the Padres. San Diego has been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball this season, slumping to a 56-61 record despite one of the most star-laden lineups in baseball. If not for the Mets and Cardinals getting most of the attention, they’d get a lot more flack for their struggles.
The Padres will send Seth Lugo to the bump, who has had a solid season in San Diego. He spent most of his career as a reliever for the Mets, but he’s held his own as a starter in 2023. However, he’s started to show some signs of deterioration, with his ERA dipping to 5.97 and his FIP to 5.11 after the All-Star break.
I think this pitching matchup is a lot closer than the current odds indicate, so I’ll grab the Diamondbacks as home dogs.
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets:
The Pick: Mets ML (+110)
I don’t blame you if you want nothing to do with the Mets at this point. Hell, I’m a Mets fan, and I barely want anything to do with them. They were absolutely embarrassed in yesterday’s doubleheader vs. the Braves, losing the two contests by a collective score of 27-3. They can’t pitch, they barely hit, and they’ve waived the white flag on the season.
So why back them on Sunday? Kodai Senga. He has been the lone bright spot in an utterly disappointing season. He’s pitched to a 3.24 ERA, 3.62 FIP, and 10.95 K/9 across his first 21 major league starts. He’s yet to face the Braves this season, but if the Mets have any chance at winning a game in this four-game series, he’s their best shot.
The Mets’ offense also has a chance to do some damage against Yonny Chirinos. He’s posted a 6.13 xERA and 5.60 FIP this season, despite the bulk of his innings coming out of the bullpen. As a starter, his ERA slips to 7.27, and he owns a 7.85 ERA since the All-Star break.
The only reason the Mets are underdogs in this contest is because they’re the Mets. They might just be completely cooked, but I can’t pass up Senga as a home underdog in this matchup.
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All odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds are subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.