After a surprising split of a four-game set against the lowly Pirates, the league-leading Atlanta Braves (72-41) will look to get back on track as they renew their NL East rivalry with the New York Mets (52-62) this weekend. First pitch of Friday’s opener is set for 7:10 p.m. ET from Citi Field. The Braves will hand the ball to veteran Charlie Morton (10-10, 3.86 ERA), while New York counters with Tylor Megill (6-5, 5.45).
Atlanta still has the best record in baseball and a stranglehold on the NL East, but they’ve scuffled a bit out of the All-Star break (at least by their lofty standards). They’ll head back home after this weekend to welcome New York’s other team, the Yankees, to Atlanta for a three-game set. The Mets, meanwhile, are just playing out the string after selling at the trade deadline, 3-7 in their last 10 games.
The Braves enter as -180 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Mets at +150. The run total is set at 9.5.
Braves-Mets picks: Friday, August 11
Injury report
Braves
Out: OF Sam Hilliard (heel), RP Dylan Lee (shoulder), RP Jesse Chavez (shin), RP Nick Anderson (shoulder), SP Kyle Wright (shoulder)
Mets
Day to day: OF DJ Stewart (wrist)
Out: OF Starling Marte (groin), INF Luis Guillorme (calf)
Starting pitchers
Charlie Morton vs. Tylor Megill
Much of Atlanta’s pitching staff has struggled of late, Morton foremost among them, with a whopping 16 runs allowed across 19.2 innings over his last four starts. He’s lost his command during that span, with at least three walks in every game — including four in just 4.1 innings of work last time out against the Chicago Cubs. His curveball remains as good as ever, but he’ll have to regain the strike zone if he wants to get back to his early-season success.
Megill got booted from the rotation after a disastrous start to 2023, and while the trades of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer have given him another chance to start, his second go-round has been … pretty much exactly the same so far. The righty got rocked in his last outing, giving up five runs on nine hits in 4.2 innings in a loss to the Baltimore Orioles. He’s given up at least five runs in three of his last four starts in the Majors, although he did limit Atlanta to three runs over 5.2 innings back in May.
Over/Under pick
Megill against this Braves offense is a colossal mismatch; Atlanta has scored at least six runs in seven of their last eight games, and they could hit this total all by themselves. Combine that potential with Morton’s recent struggles — and Pete Alonso’s insistence on carrying this Mets lineup all by himself of late — and we should hit this over pretty easily.
Pick: Over 9.5
Moneyline pick
There’s just no way to trust Megill in this spot. Even if the Mets get to Morton a bit, which I think they can, Atlanta’s offense can more or less name their number as they look to right the ship down the stretch.
Pick: Braves
