The Miami Marlins (59-56) got a step closer to securing a National League Wild Card spot with their 3-2 win over the Cincinnati Reds (60-56) on Tuesday. Now they’ll look to flip spots in the wild card standings with a win over the Reds on Wednesday. Johnny Cueto (0-3, 5.32 ERA) gets the start for the Marlins, while Graham Ashcraft (6-7, 5.18 ERA) is on the mound of the Reds. First pitch is set for 12:35 p.m. ET.
The Reds are -125 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook while the Marlins are +105 underdogs. The total is set at 10.
Marlins-Reds picks: Wednesday, August 9th
Injury report
Marlins
Out: RP JT Chargois (right rib cage strain), RP Tommy Nance (right shoulder sprain)
Reds
Out: 2B Jonathan India (left foot plantar fasciitis), OF Jake Fraley (stress fracture in left fourth toe), C Curt Casali (left foot contusion), SP Ben Lively (right pectoral strain)
Starting pitchers
Johnny Cueto vs. Graham Ashcraft
Cueto is making his return to Great American Ballpark after spending the first eight years of his career there. Cueto has been limited to four starts (22 innings) this season due to a variety of injuries, but has a 3.23 ERA in 30 2/3 career innings against the Reds. He allowed four runs in six innings against the Phillies in his last time out. Cueto is sporting a strikeout rate (21.2%) that’s near his career high, and has an expected ERA (3.65) that’s nearly two points lower than his actual ERA.
While Ashcraft has an ERA over five on the season, the second-year hurler has gone 3-1 with a 2.05 ERA in his last seven starts. He allowed four runs (three earned) in 5 2/3 innings in his start against the Marlins earlier this year.
Over/Under pick
Don’t let the high ERAs fool you; this could very well turn into a pitcher’s duel. This under has hit all four of Cueto’s four apperances since returning from the injured list, each of Ashcraft’s last five starts, and in three of the five games these teams have played this season. While I’m always a little nervous taking the under in games at Great American Ballpark, I think these teams should cruise to the under today.
Pick: Under 10
Moneyline pick
Cueto and the Marlins pick up the series win and move into a postseason spot. They injected some life into their lineup yesterday by moving Jorge Soler into the leadoff spot. I think that some of the offensive momentum they gained yesterday should roll into today’s game, even if Soler moves down in the batting order.
Pick: Marlins