Tuesday is a great day for baseball. There are 16 games to choose from, giving us plenty of spots to look for betting value.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s slate.
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Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies (Game 2):
The Pick: Nationals Moneyline (+170)
Last night’s contest between the Nationals and Phillies was postponed due to weather, so they’ll be playing a doubleheader on Tuesday. I liked the Nationals in yesterday’s contest, and they’re an even stronger option today.
Instead of Trevor Williams squaring off with Ranger Suarez, Josiah Gray will get the ball instead. Gray has turned in his best professional season at 25 years old, pitching to a 3.54 ERA. He hasn’t been quite as impressive over the second half, but he still represents an upgrade over Williams.
On the other side, Suarez represents a nice matchup for the Nationals. The left-hander has been absolute death on lefties this season, but he’s been much more mediocre against righties. He owns a 4.46 xFIP in that split, and the Nationals’ lineup is very righty heavy.
The Nationals’ offense has also been far better against southpaws than traditional pitchers. They rank 11th in wRC+ in those matchups, and they’re eighth over the past 30 days. Ultimately, that’s a lot of positives for a team that is priced at +170.
Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles:
The Pick: Orioles Moneyline (+110)
The Orioles have been one of the hottest teams in baseball. They’re 8-2 over their past 10 games, and they’re 22-10 since the start of July. It’s allowed them to take a three-game lead over the Rays, and they own the best record in the American League.
The biggest reason for the Orioles’ success has been their abundance of young talent. Most of that talent is on offense, but it also includes Grayson Rodriguez at pitcher. Rodriguez hasn’t had the best season in terms of traditional metrics, struggling to a 6.09 ERA, but he’s been significantly better since rejoining the rotation on July 17. He’s made four starts since then, and he’s pitched to a 2.95 FIP or better in each of them. Those starts have come against the Dodgers, Rays, Yankees, and Blue Jays, making his numbers even more impressive.
The Astros have historically been a great offensive squad, but they haven’t been as good this season. They’re merely 17th in wRC+ vs. right-handers, so Rodriguez should be able to continue to pitch well.
Framber Valdez will get the ball for the Astros, and he’s had a terrific season. However, he hasn’t been nearly as good since the All-Star break. He owns just a 5.63 ERA and 4.48 FIP over the second half of the season.
I’m happy to grab the Orioles as home dogs in this matchup.
San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners:
The Pick: Mariners Moneyline (-120)
The Mariners and Padres have both disappointed this season, which led to the Mariners selling off some players at the trade deadline. They didn’t go with the full teardown, but they sent away their closer in Paul Sewald and a solid right-handed bat in A.J. Pollock.
However, the Mariners have actually gone 8-2 over their past 10 games, propelling them to 60-52 on the year. That puts them just 2.5 games behind the Blue Jays for the final Wild Card spot.
The Mariners will send Logan Gilbert to the mound on Tuesday, who is one of their best starters. He’s pitched to a 3.86 ERA, and all of his ERA indicators are slightly better. He put together his best month in July, posting a 2.78 ERA across five starts.
On the other side, Nick Martinez will start for the Padres. Martinez has had a solid year, posting a 3.68 ERA, but his 4.41 xERA suggests he’s been a bit fortunate. Additionally, most of his good work has come out of the bullpen. As a starter, his FIP increases to 5.01, while his K/9 dips to 6.51.
Martinez likely won’t pitch more than a few innings, which means their bullpen should pitch more than usual. They’re merely 13th in bullpen ERA, so that’s not necessarily a good thing.
I give the Mariners a sizable edge on the bump, and they also grade out better in terms of wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers. That makes them a solid target as slight home favorites.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.