With Oregon and Washington joining USC and UCLA in moving to the Big Ten while Arizona, Arizona State and Utah join Colorado in the Big 12, the Pac-12 is now on the brink of a total collapse. There are only four member schools remaining in the conference as of this moment for the 2024 season: California, Stanford, Oregon State and Washington State.
These four schools will have to determine how they survive, because they certainly cannot operate as a conference without adding more members. And that’s where the situation expands beyond the West coast.
The Clemson Tigers haven’t been discussed much in the college football realignment noise, but this is a premier program in an ACC which is seemingly one push away from tipping over like the Pac-12. Florida State has made public comments about its frustration with the league’s revenue sharing rules, and has until August 15 to make a decision about leaving the conference. In addition to paying a $120 million exit fee, the Seminoles would also have to get out of their grant of rights agreement with the conference which runs through 2036. The school is surely looking at its legal options but the ACC will fight the school on the grant of rights because it needs Florida State to be a part of the conference to maintain a national profile.
Clemson is content to let Florida State take the public relations hits, so don’t expect much talk from the leadership at the South Carolina school. However, the Tigers will be paying close attention to how Florida State approaches this problem. Because even though Clemson might be acting like a committed member of the ACC, the Tigers would surely like to cash on this influx of TV money the SEC and Big Ten are set to receive.
Here’s a look at the best and worst case scenarios for Clemson in the conference realignment circus.
Best case scenario
Financially, there are two scenarios where the Tigers benefit. The first would be the ACC redistributing the revenue to its schools based on how much they drive TV ratings, which would help Clemson. That would surely receive pushback from the other member schools.
The second scenario is one where Florida State finds an out from their media grant of rights, which contractually carries until 2036. Clemson would surely use the same logic to get out of that agreement and make a move with the Seminoles to either the Big Ten or SEC. The Tigers haven’t had a season without double-digit wins since 2010, so they’re clearly a competitive fit in the conference. Geography, which SEC commissioner Greg Sankey has said is an important factor when looking at adding schools, helps too.
From a competition standpoint, Clemson would probably find more success in the ACC on a consistent basis. If the College Football Playoff doesn’t change much in its expanded format, the ACC has an automatic spot with a conference championship game. That game will be much easier to get to than one in the SEC or Big Ten, and Clemson would theoretically be able to make up the TV revenue with consistent trips to the playoff. We’ve seen the finances win out in every situation, so this thought process seems unlikely to be discussed by Clemson’s leadership.
Florida State and Clemson leaving would surely send the ACC into a full-blown panic, with schools like Miami and Louisville also likely trying to join the ACC. Virginia, North Carolina, Duke and Syracuse would be Big Ten targets. Maybe Pitt, Wake Forest, Boston College and NC State could join the four Pac-12 schools. Notre Dame’s status in non-football sports would be up in the air, with the Big Ten looking like the most logical destination.
Worst case scenario
The worst case scenario for Clemson is Florida State fails to get out of the ACC grant of rights agreement. That would mean the Tigers are tied to the conference, along with everyone else, until 2036 barring major changes. Clemson has been fine competitively in the ACC and surely will be a consistent CFP threat, but will that revenue gap impact them when they go up against the best of the SEC and Big Ten?
The ACC staying intact would likely force the four Pac-12 schools to merge with the Mountain West, while looking at potentially bringing Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s into the mix for basketball purposes. The ACC would probably be comparable to the Big 12 in the college football hierarchy, but there will always be some tension knowing the bigger member schools are looking for a way to get out.