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Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The Pick: Game Total over 5.5 runs 1st 5 innings
I think we’re going to see a lot of offense early in this game that features Trevor Williams against Ranger Suarez. Both starters have seen their opponent twice already and neither have come away with good results. Williams has thrown 10.1 innings against the Phillies, allowing seven runs on 12 hits, including four home runs and six walks. Suarez has gone 12.1 innings with six runs on 15 hits and four walks allowed. Williams in particular really struggles early in the game. The first time through the order, he has a 4.57 ERA with a .370 wOBA and a 5.49 FIP. I’d expect the Phillies to be able to jump on him quickly, especially with lefties in 3 of the first five hitters in their lineup. Against lefties, Williams has a .369 wOBA and a 5.58 FIP.
I also think the Nationals are a sneaky offense tonight. It’s not talked about enough but they are a low key good offense against lefties. Entering this game, they boast a. .345 wOBA with a 115 wRC+ and only a 19.8% K%. I like taking props on their side as well, including overs on Lane Thomas. I’ll have a good amount of exposure to this game with my bets tonight.
Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
The Pick: Rangers team total over 5.5 runs +105
The Rangers lineup was dealt a huge blow yesterday when it was announced that rookie third baseman Josh Jung would be sidelined with a fractured thumb. Nonetheless, the Rangers offense continued to roll and I think that’ll be the case tonight. Since the calendar turned to August, this Rangers team is averaging 6.5 runs per game while slashing .277/.352/.600. Now they have the benefit of facing the Athletics again. Through the first seven games in the season series, the Rangers have scored a whopping 54 runs against them, good for an average of 7.7 per game. They’ll face Ken Waldichuk, who has been struggling with his command and hasn’t gone more than 5.2 innings in any of his 14 starts this season. With a putrid bullpen behind him, the Rangers should be putting up some crooked numbers tonight.
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
The Pick: Game Total over 8.5 runs -105
The Twins and Tigers start a series tonight with Pablo Lopez and Joey Wentz taking the mound for their respective teams. Pablo Lopez has been a mixed bag after a strong start to the season. He faced the Tigers once already and allowed three runs on seven hits and 10 strikeouts through six innings. While Lopez hasn’t been bad against lefties with a .310 wOBA and a 3.83 FIP, he’s been stronger against righties. The Tigers should have between five or six lefties going tonight in their lineup.
As for the Twins offense, they’ll see Wentz for the third time. He looked good in his return in a bulk-relief role against the Marlins but that hasn’t been the case for him lately. Two of his last three starts came against the Twins, where they hit him for those six runs. He doesn’t normally go deep into games either, which opens the door for more innings from the bullpen. In the second-half, the Tigers bullpen has a 4.84 ERA with a 4.14 FIP.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
