The United States women’s national team, entering the 2023 women’s World Cup as the favorite to win the whole thing at DraftKings Sportsbook, finds itself limping into the round of 16 after a 0-0 draw with Portugal in the final group stage game. It’s the first time in World Cup history the Americans haven’t won multiple group stage games, and the second time they didn’t win their group. They came within a goalpost away of being eliminated from the competition altogether.
Ahead of the round of 16, Chinmay Vaidya and Collin Sherwin break down what is plaguing the United States, what can be done to fix the issues and whether the Americans can right the ship in time to make a run at a historic three-peat.
What was your initial reaction to the draw vs. Portugal? Has your thinking changed after a few days to process?
CV: My initial reaction was a mix of disappointment, disgust and exhaustion. Not scoring a goal happens sometimes but USA made too many silly mistakes which led to sloppy plays and turnovers. The Americans looked checked out for a large portion of the match, and there was no spark that would wake them up this time. It nearly did cost them in stoppage time.
After a few days, my thinking hasn’t changed. The result against Portugal was unacceptable from every USWNT standard, and I would hope the veterans on this team let everyone have it. At the end of the day, the Americans still have the big prize in front of them. And while they may not win it, they certainly cannot go out without giving a better effort across the board.
CS: I played a bit of soccer in youth leagues and in high school, and I’m a Gen X’er so that wasn’t as much of a thing when I was a kid. I have cared irrationally about US Soccer for basically my entire life, going back to Tony Meola holding Italy to a 1-0 win in Rome at Italia ‘90, the first World Cup the US had qualified in 40 years.
I didn’t see Paul Caligiuri’s Shot Heard Round The World because it wasn’t on TV anywhere, but when I read about it the next day I could not have been more excited. The 99’ers (who I first saw play in person during the ‘96 Olympics in Orlando) are one of my favorite teams in all of sports ever.
But I don’t know if I’ve ever been more furious about the state of the program as a whole, and I lived through France ‘98 and HarkesGate. The rot in the structure and administration of US Soccer runs so deep that even a lauded and qualified former player in Cindy Cone seems incapable of getting it fixed.
I’ve blamed Sunil Gulati and Don Garber and the franchise model in MLS and pay-to-play and the youth development system. But Cone was a member of the US Soccer board before she got the big chair, and it seems from the outside that anyone permitted to be a part of this system becomes corrupted by reaching the levels needed to make change.
We need a de facto soccer czar, and that person should have as few ties to the current structure of the American game as possible. Hiring VLATKO to take over the best women’s team in the world reeks of political incestuousness, and a lack of creativity and commitment. The same could be said for Jill Ellis as well, but her teams simply had enough raw talent to overcome her glaring tactical weaknesses.
Jurgen Klinsmann got a lot of things wrong, and the late Grant Wahl’s assessment of him might have been somewhat correct. But he was right about his biggest issue in domestic football: US Soccer needs to be overhauled root-and-branch. From the governance to the player development system and even in how coaches are trained.
The problem is the rest of the world has discovered the women’s game is a place where they can make money, and now they’re finally investing using similar structures to their men’s programs that have been a sporting and political focus for over a century. That is how the US could get lapped in a hurry.
The Americans struggled to finish chances in the final third, which was one of the key issues ahead of the Portugal game. What’s the solution?
CV: Inserting Rose Lavelle and Lynn Williams into the starting lineup did open up some lanes for the United States but it falls apart when passes aren’t crisp and players are jogging into spaces they should be sprinting into. Alex Morgan, who is seemingly being given all the blame for the attacking failures, is being forced to track back to provide service to the younger players. Sophia Smith failed to make varying runs, instead opting for the same sideline routes which the Portuguese easily cut off. Lindsey Horan looked gassed after about 10 minutes.
There’s no obvious solution for bad finishing, but perhaps a change in formation would benefit the United States. A 4-4-2 shape with Julie Ertz and Horan as the central midfielders would open up a spot for either Megan Rapinoe or Trinity Rodman as an attacker. Someone will have to take Ertz’s spot on the back line. This would free up Morgan to make more attacking moves, and Rapinoe’s creativity is desperately needed with Lavelle set to miss the round of 16 match.
CS: Being -3.8 xG through 4.5 hours on the pitch could make it seem like bad luck, but this is where the quantitative lies and the qualitative tells the truth. The US is using their superior athleticism to back teams up, but they’ve shown zero technical ability anywhere within 25 yards of net. All hat, no cattle.
And it would be one thing if they were drawing a ton of free kicks in dangerous areas or corners that truly look threatening. But six corners (most of which were terrible in execution) and a few decent free kick opportunities on the edge of the area simply isn’t enough against Portugal.
You got out-possessed by the 21st-ranked team in the world 57%-43%. They completed 100 more passes than you, and when you did connect it was completely scattershot and without any purpose or direction. These players look like they met in the parking lot and had never played together before. It’s just astonishing how poorly managed you can be on the biggest stage in the world.
Honestly, I think it might be too late to fix it. Having some kind of suitable plan in the attacking third, or literally any chemistry for players that haven’t spent a ton of time on the pitch together, isn’t something you can whip up in two practices. This World Cup was lost before they got on the plane, and it’s gone downhill from there.
What’s the fix for USA’s midfield?
CV: Short of not playing a midfield, the Americans don’t have many options. Andi Sullivan made a disastrous decision on a pass in the Portugal game, and that nearly cost USA a spot in the knockout round. She hasn’t been good in enforcing her presence either, so benching her is the first change. Bringing Ertz up, who has been excellent at the back, should theoretically provide more stability. Horan would line up with Ertz in the middle, and some combination of Rapinoe, Rodman and Williams would fill out the other two spots. Four midfielders is the way to go now, since three has been a complete disaster.
CS: Andi Sullivan is a helluva lot better at what she does than I am at what I do, but she’s been such a net negative it’s almost impossible to process. I think you’ve got to change the formation so she’s not the fulcrum of a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1. Maybe a 4-5-1 so you can just overcome the midfield weakness with bodies?? And just put Smith or Rodman at the top on one side so you have some chance to score without a lone striker?
VLATKO is always going four across the back, and I think that’s actually wise. But a lot of that is because of Ertz as the vocal captain at central defender, and you simply have to put her in the midfield because of Rose Lavelle being out. Whether it’s Sophia Huerta, Kelley O’Hara, or Emily Sonnett there will be some drop-off, but Ertz has won two World Cups already and she’ll run until her legs fall off in the middle.
Horan has had her moments going forward, but she’s had trouble linking with Sophia Smith on the left and all of the attack. Peak Tobin Heath would be exactly what the US needs to unlock the offense, but since she’s not here I think running out another defensive liability in Megain Rapinoe is likely the best move (though she wasn’t great vs. Portugal either).
Try and win 2-1 instead of going to penalty kicks at 0-0, which is by far the most likely outcome if Ertz stays at No. 4 instead of becoming a No. 6.
Rose Lavelle will miss the round of 16 clash due to card accumulation. How badly will this impact the Americans and what is the best solution to make up for her absence?
CV: Take away one of the fastest players in space from any team and you’ll see some negative effects. If that players also happens to be one of the best creators for others, you’re compounding the issue. It’s a massive blow for the Americans given their current scoring struggles, but one they should be able to make up for with their bench. Rapinoe seems destined to start to make up some of that creativity, while Rodman can provide a speed element which was missing against Portugal. It’s not a great solution but anything short of magically revoking Lavelle’s suspension isn’t going to be.
CS: They’re absolutely screwed. Lavelle has been the only non-defensive bright spot the entire tournament. Sometimes it’s more about Jane’s and Jill’s than X’s and O’s, and they just don’t have anyone as dynamic or physical to replace her.
So do what bad middle managers have done for centuries: Throw bodies at the problem! Clog up the center, and force the opponent down the wings into the claws of Crystal Dunn and Emily Fox. Let them win the ball and sort it out.
Has there been anything good about USA’s performance through three matches?
CV: The back line has held up extremely well, as expected. The Americans have only given up one shot on target through three games, and it just happened to go in. They have allowed 11 total shots, six less than they took in the Portugal game alone. Crystal Dunn and Emily Fox have balanced helping the attackers well with tracking back, and Naomi Girma has risen to the challenge of playing in a World Cup. USA isn’t scoring, but it isn’t allowing goals either. And while that formula isn’t pretty, it does keep you in games.
CS: Rose Lavelle is an American treasure. Alex Morgan has shown with the right level of service, she’s still got it. But even Alyssa Naeher hasn’t been that good, and almost had the US touching down at LAX Wednesday morning.
The back four has been very good, but now you’ve got to break them up by bringing Ertz forward unless you plan on flipping for the quarterfinals via penalty kicks.
Is Vlatko Andonovski coaching for his job in the round of 16?
CV: Yes. USA has made the semifinal round at every World Cup in history. Under Andonovski, the Americans looked underwhelming at the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo and got bounced by Canada in the semifinal matchup. They’re looking worse than that performance at this World Cup. While the coach can’t make passes for players or make them sprint, he or she should be able to set them up to be successful given their constraints. Anything short of a semifinal exit means Andonovski is on the hot seat.
CS: Win or lose, he’s gotta go. This is an abomination. If we ever get the ESPN 30 For 30 about this tournament, I’m sure the info nuggets dropped from the players will be insane. Everyone looks completely lost out there.
Broadcast talking heads complaining about the ladies singing and dancing before the match aren’t the problem. The tactics and roster selection are the problem.
The Americans are playing Sweden in the round of 16. What are the biggest concerns with this matchup?
CV: Sweden have looked great through two games, although they did catch a bit of a scare in the opener against South Africa. This is the same team which defeated the Americans at the Olympics in the group stage, and possesses plenty of experience at the World Cup. The biggest concern is the lethargic effort from the Americans. That stuff can pass against Vietnam and Portugal, but it won’t against a good team in a knockout game.
CS: Sweden is the third-best team in the world according to FIFA. But that same ranking has the USA at No. 1, and we all know that’s clearly not the case at present. The Swedes xG for that 5-0 win over Italy was just 1.79, so they might have been a bit lucky, but it certainly looks more like an out-perform situation. Amanda Ilestedt is a problem, as is their team chemistry and how long they’ve played together; an area where this US roster clearly lacks.
Last but certainly not least: what will the Americans need to do to win this game?
CV: Score a goal. It sounds so elementary and yet, that’s the one thing this team hasn’t been able to accomplish in open play. The USWNT have always been able to find goals without the help of set pieces or penalties, but that hasn’t been the case here. We know USA’s defense can hold up for 90 minutes but will the supposed “world class” attacking options hold up their end of the deal? If the Americans can get a goal, they have a shot given how great they’ve defended. Don’t expect them to win if this turns into a scoring frenzy. They’ll have to grind out a win here, potentially even needing extra time or penalty kicks to get the job done.
CS: Pray? Hope for a cyclone?
I just don’t see how what needs to be fixed can be in just a few days. It would be one thing if the US was facing a team with defensive liabilities, but that’s certainly not the Swedes. I think they’re cooked, but a few moments of skill from Rapinoe, Morgan, Horan, and some of the other veterans might free up the youngsters to do great things with their pace.
I think the USA is going home. And I certainly hope I’m wrong.