After a lighter travel day on Thursday, the big leagues are back with a full, 15-game slate on Friday night (well, save for a patented Wrigley Field matinee between the Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs). That means plenty of action, and plenty of options to choose from for those of you looking to place prop bets. To help you sort through it all, here are three of our favorite plays of the day.
MLB player prop bets: Friday, August 4
Logan Allen, over 5.5 strikeouts (+115)
It’s been a mixed bag for Allen since coming back into the Guardians’ rotation after the All-Star break: a 4.50 ERA over three starts, only one of which cleared this strikeout total. His last outing, against the Chicago White Sox, didn’t go so well, with five runs allowed on eight hits in six innings with just four Ks. Despite going up against Chicago again on Friday night, I’m betting on better results in the rematch.
For starters, the White Sox have been among the most whiff-tastic teams in baseball of late, with a 27.2% strikeout rate against lefties that’s the third-highest in baseball since July 1. Second, Allen has been a bit better than those raw numbers would suggest: Prior to his last start, he’d struck out 23 batters over his last 19.2 innings, efficiency that points to his swing-and-miss upside and bodes well for his ability to hit this number. If the southpaw gets through at least five innings today, I think he hits this over — and at +115, I’m willing to take the risk.
Quinn Priester, over 2.5 walks (+100)
This one’s a bit more straight-forward: Priester, the Pittsburgh Pirates’ top pitching prospect, has shown a propensity to hand out free passes since getting called up for his MLB debut last month. The Milwaukee Brewers, meanwhile — Priester’s opponent on Friday — draw walks as well as just about anyone. Priester has always shown some command issues, even in the Minors, where his BB/9 consistent sat in the 3.5 range. That’s only continued so far in the bigs: The young righty has walked 11 in just 15.2 innings, including a whopping six in his last start against the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Brewers, meanwhile, have put up a 10.9% walk rate against righties that’s second-highest in baseball since July 1, behind only the Dodgers. Milwaukee also just put up 16 runs in a win yesterday, so you know they’re seeing the ball well — and they should have no trouble working counts against Priester on Friday.
Freddie Freeman and David Peralta, each to record a hit (-105)
Let’s go with a same-game parlay to close things out. Odds for individual hit props typically aren’t the friendliest, but if you combine two together, suddenly things get a lot more favorable — and Freeman and Peralta are both good bets to tally at least one hit against Padres starter Yu Darvish on Friday night. Freeman is on an absolute heater right: He’s batting .396 since the start of July, with at least one knock in 20 of 25 games over that span. As if that weren’t compelling enough, he also has nine hits in 28 career at-bats against Darvish (OPS: 1.101).
Peralta has also had a ton of success against the San Diego righty in his career, slashing .357/.438/.679 with 10 hits and three homers. He’s starting consistently against right-handed pitching — hitting .272 with the platoon advantage this season — and is hitting .275 in his last 17 starts dating back to July 1.
