The Houston Astros (60-47) moved closer to the American League West lead with their 7-3 win over the Cleveland Guardians (53-54) on Monday, and now sit just half a game back of the Texas Rangers. Now they’ll send Framber Valdez (8-7, 3.29 ERA) to the mound tonight in the hopes of securing the win that could help propel them into the division lead. The Guardians, who sit a game back of the twins in the American League Central) will send rookie Gavin Williams (1-2, 3.35 ERA) to the mound.
The Astros are the -185 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Cleveland is a +154 underdog. The total is set at 8.5.
Guardians-Astros picks: Tuesday, August 1
Injury report
Guardians
Out: SP Cal Quantrill (right shoulder inflammation), SP Triston McKenzie (right UCL sprain), SP Shane Bieber (right elbow inflammation)
Astros
SP Jose Urquidy (right shoulder inflammation), OF Michael Brantley (right shoulder surgery)
Starting pitchers
Gavin Williams vs. Framber Valdez
Williams, one part of the Guardians’ stellar rookie starting pitcher trio, has gone four innings in each of his last two starts, allowing one run against the Phillies on July 21 before throwing four scoreless innings against the Royals on July 26. While he boasts strong stuff, he’s struggled with his command, as he’s allowed multiple walks in his last three starts.
While Valdez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, he’s coming off his shortest start of the season, as he allowed six runs to the Rangers and failed to get out of the fourth inning. That start is part of a troubling stretch of games for Valdez, who boasts a 7.29 ERA in his four July outings.
Over/Under pick
Monday’s game was cruising towards the under before the Astros’ offense broke through against the Guardians’ bullpen. I think tonight’s game will clear the over, only this time it’ll be because of two shaky starting pitchers.
Pick: Over 8.5
Moneyline pick
On Monday, the Astros picked up a win thanks to Yordan Alvarez’s clutch home run. I think walks will be the difference tonight, as Williams’ lack of command could lead to a short night, which would mean the Astros’ offense would get plenty of chances against the Guardians’ overworked bullpen.
Pick: Astros