With the start of the NFL season approaching, now seems like the perfect time to dive into Over/Under predictions on DraftKings Sportsbook for the 2023 season. It has been a crazy offseason between Aaron Rodgers going to the Big Apple, running backs holding out, and Tom Brady’s retirement. Now, we look forward to what should be an amazing 18 weeks of the regular season, kicking off on September 7th with the defending champion Chiefs hosting the Lions.
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OVER Picks
Buffalo Bills Over 10.5 (-150)
This seems like the perfect number for Buffalo, and I’m going to go with the Over on this one. Although the Jets and Dolphins have improved within the AFC East, the Bills are still the team to beat in that division. This total has hit for the Bills in each of their last three seasons with Josh Allen, winning 13 games last year and in 2020 and 11 wins in 2021. Josh Allen showed no signs of slowing down any time soon last year, throwing for over 4200 yards and adding 35 touchdowns through the air. As long as he stays healthy, the Bills are in great shape offensively. In other team bolstering news, they retained Safety Jordan Poyer and also added another weapon in the first round of the NFL Draft, TE Dalton Kincaid. Both of these moves are huge for both sides of the ball and even more of a reason to go Over 10.5 wins this season.
Minnesota Vikings Over 8.5 (-110)
The Vikings won a whopping 11 games last year by one score en route to 13 wins last year, but even so, I believe the Over here is the play. With Aaron Rodgers leaving the NFC North, the division is wide open in 2023. I think the Vikings not only go over 8.5 wins but also retain their NFC North crown. Although the team lost long-time receiver Adam Thielen to the Panthers, they went out and upgraded their receiving core in the NFL Draft, selecting receiver Jordan Addison in the first round. With Justin Jefferson getting a ton of attention from defenses, that should clear the way for Cousins to spread the ball around to his other talented receivers. The team will be without star running back Dalvin Cook and will turn to Alexander Mattison to carry the majority of the workload. Mattison has shown flashes and will have an opportunity to show just how good he is in 2023. On the defensive side of the ball, they retained DE Danielle Hunter, who had 10.5 sacks last year and also hired talented DC Brian Flores to help improve that unit.
Cincinnati Bengals Over 10.5 (-130)
It was a relatively quiet offseason for the Bengals, adding tackle Orlando Brown to help solve some of the offensive line issues they were plagued with last year. The only notable losses for the team were safety Jessie Bates III and cornerback Eli Apple. Star quarterback Joe Burrow suffered a minor calf injury in practice last week, but all signs point to him being 100% ready for Week 1. After winning 12 games a year ago, I don’t see this team slowing down any time soon. Burrow and this offense were strong, averaging 360.5 yards of offense per game. The offense should be similar to what it was in 2022, with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon getting plenty of the ball. In the NFL Draft, they added DE Myles Murphy in the first round. Cincinnati now has a formidable defensive line with Trey Hendrickson lining up across from Murphy and D.J. Reader stuffing the run up the middle. If Burrow has a similar year to last year, throwing for over 4400 yards and 35 touchdowns, the over 10.5 wins should cash easily.
UNDER Picks
Cleveland Browns Under 9.5 (-135)
This number seems way too high for me, with the Browns being the third or fourth-best team in the division on paper, behind the Bengals and Ravens. Even if Deshaun Watson returns to his old self, there is still a chance they will go under this total, in my opinion. The Browns have only won 10 or more games one time in the past 15 seasons, and I don’t think this year will be any different. Watson dealt with a long suspension last year and when he returned to action, he looked underwhelming. He completed only 58.2% of his passes for 1,102 yards, seven touchdowns and five picks in his six games. Although it’s a small sample size, it tells a big enough story that Watson did not look like the same player he was in Houston. The team did get another weapon for him outside of Amari Cooper, trading with the Jets for receiver Elijah Moore. Moore had less than 500 receiving yards and one touchdown last year, so it’s hard to expect this to be an earth-shattering move for Cleveland. Running back Kareem Hunt and DE Jadeveon Clowney are both still free agents, so those could be two big losses for the team as well. To make matters worse, Cleveland didn’t have a pick until the third round in the NFL Draft, so the lack of incoming talent for a team that won only seven games last year is concerning. I think under 9.5 wins hits comfortably here, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Browns finish in last place in the AFC North.
Denver Broncos Under 8.5 (-110)
The Broncos were a mess last year under Nathaniel Hackett and upgraded their head coaching position with long-time Saints coach Sean Payton. Unfortunately for the Broncos, I think it will take more than a head coaching change to get them over this total. Denver was the 21st-best offense last year in terms of yards per game and didn’t make too many offensive additions this offseason to change that. They added tackle Mike McGlinchey and in the NFL Draft, they picked receiver Marvin Mims Jr. in the second round. Not having a first-round pick last year surely didn’t help, and with receiver Tim Patrick suffering what appears to be a serious injury earlier this week, the lack of offensive weapons for Russell Wilson is clear as day. There’s only so much Sean Payton can do from the sidelines, and with Javonte Williams and Jerry Jeudy as the focal points of your offense, I think nine or more wins is asking a lot of this roster. The AFC West is one of the best divisions in football, and I believe the Broncos will struggle with the Raiders for third place.
Atlanta Falcons Under 8.5 (+100)
The addition of Bijan Robinson seems to be exciting a lot of people about this Falcons team, but the NFL is a quarterback-driven league and Atlanta has serious question marks at that position. Desmond Ridder was selected in the third round of the 2022 draft by the Falcons and is expected to be their day-one starter this upcoming season. We only have a small sample size of what he can do, as Marcus Mariota was the starter for the majority of 2022 and Ridder only got to start four games at the end of the year. He wasn’t too impressive in those four games, throwing for an average of 177 yards per game while completing 63.5% of his passes with two touchdowns and no interceptions. It definitely could have been much worse, but the reality of throwing two touchdowns and no interceptions over four games shows the coaching staff didn’t truly open up the playbook and put the ball in harm’s way. Bijan Robinson should help open things up for the young quarterback, but ultimately I think nine or more wins with such an inexperienced quarterback is a lot to ask, even in an easier division. The team added safety Jessie Bates III in free agency, but the additions they made are not enough to sure up a defense that was 21st in the league in points against last year.
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