Just hours after announcing themselves as sellers at the trade deadline by shipping off closer David Robertson, the New York Mets (48-54) look to keep their faint NL Wild Card hopes alive in game two of a four-game set with the Washington Nationals (43-60). First pitch from Citi Field is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Lefty MacKenzie Gore (6-7, 4.37 ERA) gets the ball for the Nats, while the Mets hope Max Scherzer (8-4, 4.20) can close a rough July on a high note.
The Nationals remain stuck in the NL East cellar and figure to ship off several veterans ahead of the deadline, though they have won six of their last 10 games. Once this weekend wraps, they’ll head back home for a three-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Robertson may be gone — and Tommy Pham, Mark Canha and others could be soon to follow — but New York still isn’t completely cooked in the NL Wild Card race. New York is seven games back of the third and final spot, though, and time is running out. They’ll head to the Midwest on Monday to kick off a six-game road trip against the Kansas City Royals.
New York enters as -190 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Washington at +160. The run total is set at 8.5.
Nationals-Mets picks: Friday, July 28
Injury report
Nationals
Out: RP Carl Edwards Jr. (shoulder), RP Hunter Harvey (forearm)
Mets
Out: OF Starling Marte (migraines), INF Luis Guillorme (calf)
Starting pitchers
MacKenzie Gore vs. Max Scherzer
Gore is about as boom or bust as a pitcher can get: The former top prospect has shown an electric arsenal, but whether he can actually command it is another question — and when he’s off, very crooked numbers typically follow. The lefty has allowed 0, 5, 7 and 1 earned runs in each of his last four full starts, so good luck figuring out which version of him you’ll get on a given day. He’s faced the Mets twice already this season, striking out 10 over six dominant innings back in April and allowing no runs but only lasting four frames thanks to five hits and two walks in early May.
Scherzer looked to be turning a corner as June came to a close, but he’s been roughed up so far in July — largely thanks to the home run ball. The future Hall of Famer has given up a whopping nine dingers in four starts this month, including four just in his last outing against the Red Sox alone. He’s still missing plenty of bats — he’s struck out 29 batters in 24 innings over that span — and he’s shown plenty of flashes of looking like the Scherzer of old. If he can keep his mistakes in the yard, he should be fine.
Over/Under pick
Facing a weak offense, I think Scherzer gets back on the wagon tonight; it’s really just been his home run rate that’s sunk him over his last few starts, and that’s notoriously noisy and prone to regression. Washington is just 24th in the league in team OPS against righties, and while Gore is certainly capable of getting shelled, we’ve also seen him dominate — and an inconsistent Mets offense has seen this over hit just four times in their last 14 games.
Pick: Under 8.5
Moneyline pick
Scherzer seems due for a big outing, and with most everybody writing New York off after the Robertson trade, I think they come out motivated to prove that they still think they can make a run at a Wild Card spot. There’s a chance that Gore shoves — we’ve seen him do it before against the Mets — but New York is the far more talented and motivated team with the more trustworthy starter on the mound.
Pick: Mets
