I generally disagree with the idea that you shouldn’t turn your hobby into your job, but then some days, I really get it. I stayed up till 2:00 a.m. ET last night to watch the ol’ local baseball team blow a four-run lead in the ninth inning. I’m tired. I’m cranky. I don’t want to think about MLB at the moment.
Yet here we are. Powering through the pain. There’s only five games on this evening’s featured slate. Let’s begrudgingly dive in.
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PITCHER
Stud
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox, $12,700 – He’ll be popular, but I’d worry about differentiation elsewhere on this small slate. The fact of the matter is no asset possesses as much raw upside as Strider. His 39.7% strikeout rate is nearly nine percentage points higher than the next qualified NL starter, and Strider has racked up double-digit strikeouts in four of his last five outings. He’s also the lone National League arm with a SIERA under 3.00 — and his sits at a jaw-dropping 2.55. The separation is insane.
Value
Hogan Harris, Oakland Athletics at San Francisco Giants, $5,300 – Here’s the thing: I don’t think Harris is a bad pitcher. His 6.11 ERA is gross, yet a 4.37 xERA across 53.0 innings tells a much more palatable story. Really, the rookie LHP has just run into some bad luck. At least that’s what I’d call a microscopic 57.7% strand rate. Harris will have an amazing opportunity to improve some of these numbers on Wednesday, facing an ice-cold Giants lineup. How bad has San Francisco been as of late? Since the All-Star break, the team ranks dead-last in wOBA (.263) and wRC+ (64). The Giants also sport a 27.6% strikeout rate within that span of time.
INFIELD
Stud
Josh Jung, Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, $4,600 – The Rangers hit left-handed pitching incredibly well. Now, Framber Valdez ($10,900) isn’t your average southpaw, yet the Cy Young candidate has run into some recent turmoil, pitching to a 5.79 ERA over his last four outings. That is to say, he’s not completely untouchable. Jung has been one of the league’s best at punishing LHPs in 2023, owning a .297 ISO and a 178 wRC+ in his 96 plate appearances within the split. Needless to say, he possesses some serious ceiling in this spot.
Stud
Cody Bellinger, Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox, $4,600 – Bellinger just keeps on hitting. In 85 plate appearances in July, the former NL MVP is slashing .429/.447/.753 with a 217 wRC+. He’s been everything the Cubs could have hoped for and more. Meanwhile, there hasn’t been a pitcher in all of baseball with more issues against LHBs than Lance Lynn ($7,700). To wit, Lynn’s surrendered 3.28 home runs per nine within the split so far in 2023. That equates out to a .653 opponent slugging percentage. Woof.
Value
Ezequiel Duran, Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, $3,500 – I’ll be curious to see where Duran ends up in tonight’s lineup. The 24-year-old has generally inhabited the lower-third of Texas’ batting order, yet with Corey Seager (thumb) sidelined, there’s suddenly an opening at the top of the card. It’s not like Duran doesn’t have the numbers to back up a move to the two-spot, either. This season against LHPs, Duran is slashing .347/.410/.680 with a stunning 196 wRC+.
Value
Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves, $2,900 – If you’re among those looking to fade Strider’s chalk this evening, Casas is your man. The former top prospect has been dangerous in the batter’s box dating back to the beginning of June, as Casas has slashed .306/.400/.575 with a 163 wRC+ in that lengthy span. It’s not like Strider isn’t susceptible to the long ball, either. In his last 12 starts, the sophomore is allowing 1.80 opponent home runs per nine.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers, $6,000 – Don’t sleep on Tucker in this left-on-left matchup with Andrew Heaney ($6,700). Tucker’s actually been at his best this season when facing southpaws, mustering a .361 average and a 187 wRC+ in his 137 plate appearances within the split. As for Heaney, the veteran is rocking a 5.66 ERA and surrendering 1.96 opponent home runs per nine since the beginning of June. He’s not exactly in a groove at the moment.
Stud
Chas McCormick, Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers, $4,100 – This is what you call a buying opportunity. As recently as yesterday, McCormick’s price tag has been as high as $4.9K. Today, it sits just above $4K, despite the Astros facing a middling left-handed opponent. We know what McCormick does against middling left-handed opponents. The outfielder is hitting .338 with a 195 wRC+ off southpaws in 2023.
Value
Harrison Bader, New York Yankees vs. New York Mets, $3,500 – On the rare occasion he’s been healthy in 2023, Bader has easily been at his best with a left-handed opponent on the mound. It’s just a 43 plate appearance sample, but Bader is slashing .316/.372/.816 with a ridiculous .500 ISO. That’s what happens when you’ve got four home runs in just 38 at-bats. Jose Quintana ($5,700) looked fine in his return from the IL last week, yet the veteran isn’t a name to fear at this point in his career.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
