The Milwaukee Brewers (56-45) extended their lead on the National League Central with an electric 3-2 win over the Cincinnati Reds (56-45) on Monday. The Reds will look to rebound when they send rookie starter Andrew Abbott (5-2, 2.10 ERA) to the mound against Corbin Burnes (9-5, 3.49 ERA) on Tuesday. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET.
The Brewers are -145 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Reds are +125 underdogs. The total is set at 8.
Reds-Brewers picks: Tuesday, July 25
Injury report
Reds
Out: SP Hunter Greene (right hip pain), RP Casey Legumina (right shoulder pain), SP Nick Lodolo (left tibia stress reaction), Curt Casali (left foot contusion)
Brewers
Out: 1B Rowdy Tellez (right forearm inflammation, fractured left finger), 3B Brian Anderson (back), SP Wade Miley (left elbow discomfort), SP Brandon Woodruff (right shoulder strain)
Starting pitchers
Andrew Abbott vs. Corbin Burnes
Abbott is no stranger to the Brewers, as tonight’s start will the 10th of his career, and his fourth against the Brewers. He’s coming off the strongest start of his young career, as he allowed one hit and two walks with six strikeouts over right scoreless innings against the Giants. With the start, he became the first Reds starter to last eight innings in a start. Abbott made back-to-back starts against the Brewers earlier this month, going 4 1/3 innings (six earned runs) in the first start and six innings (two runs) in the second. His first career start came against the Brewers, where he allowed one run over six innings.
After a good but not great first half, Burnes has thrown 14 scoreless innings in his first two second half starts, scattering four hits across the two starts with 23 strikeouts. He enters Tuesday’s start in the 92nd percentile in exit velocity, the 85th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 83rd percentile in expected slugging. This is his first start of the season against the Reds, but he’s 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA in 17 games (seven starts) in his career against the Reds.
Over/Under pick
Not only have Burnes and Abbott been pitching out of their minds, but this under has hit in seven of the 11 games the teams have played this year. I’m expecting that trend to continue.
Pick: Under 8
Moneyline pick
Monday was a perfect example of the type of win the Brewers have been putting together all season, as they rode strong defense and pitching to a close win. I’m banking on them following that formula to a second straight win.
Pick: Brewers