The Boston Red Sox and New York Mets are each looking to pick up a series win in the rubber match of this three-game set on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch from Fenway Park is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Carlos Carrasco (3-3, 5.35 ERA) will start for New York, while reliever Brennan Bernardino (1-0, 2.48) kicks off what figures to be a bullpen game for the Red Sox.
The Mets entered the second half needing to stack wins together in order to become solidly buyers at the trade deadline, but instead New York has tread water at 4-4. They’ll head down I-95 on Tuesday to kick off the final Subway Series of the season with two games against the Yankees in the Bronx.
Just 4-4 since the second half got underway, Boston enters play Sunday tied with the New York Yankees for dead last in the AL East — but still just two games off the pace for the final AL Wild Card spot. Their homestand continues for a couple more days as they welcome the Atlanta Braves to Fenway for a big interleague matchup starting Tuesday.
The Red Sox enter as -145 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Mets at +125. The run total is set at 9.
Mets-Red Sox picks: Sunday, July 23
Injury report
Mets
Day-to-day: OF Tommy Pham (groin)
Out: OF Starling Marte (migraines), INF Luis Guillorme (calf)
Red Sox
Out: SP Garrett Whitlock (elbow), SP Brayan Bello (paternity), SP Tanner Houck (face), RP Corey Kluber (shoulder), C Reese McGuire (oblique), SS Pablo Reyes (abdomen)
Starting pitchers
Carlos Carrasco vs. Brennan Bernardino
Carrasco took another step back in his last outing against the Chicago White Sox, allowing four runs on six hits and two walks in just 4.2 innings of work. The 36-year-old had put together three straight starts of two or fewer earned runs — including eight shutout innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks just before the All-Star break — but overall this season has been a struggle. The righty has only completed five innings seven times in 13 outings, and while his slider and changeup remain solid weapons, his fastball is catching way too much of the plate and getting hit hard as a result (.337 BA, .640 SLG).
As injuries have forced Boston to add more bullpen days to their schedule, Bernardino has been Alex Cora’s opener of choice. The lefty has started three games so far in July, allowing one run on three hits in 5.1 innings of work. He’ll usually try to make it through a couple of innings before giving way to a bulk man — like one of two lefties, Chris Murphy or Brandon Walter.
Over/Under pick
Curiously for a team with so many solid right-handed bats, the Mets have struggled against left-handed pitching all year, with a team OPS that ranks 22nd for the season and a woeful 27th since July 1. That said, it’s hard to trust the under here given Carrasco’s struggles, Boston’s success at the plate of late and Fenway Park’s penchant for putting up crooked numbers. With both of these teams desperate for a win, I expect a slugfest on Sunday night after the totals of the first two games came in at 9 and 14.
Pick: Over 9
Moneyline pick
It feels strange to have more confidence Boston’s succession of relievers than Carrasco, but the veteran righty simply hasn’t been trustworthy this season — and has really struggled to go deep into games, exposing the underbelly of the Mets’ questionable bullpen. With the way the Red Sox are swinging the bat, I like them to pick up a series win.
Pick: Red Sox
