There’s a full-slate of baseball this evening, but does it really matter? Like the rest of the world, I’m in complete Barbenheimer mode. I’ll simply say this because this is a betting article: My personal odds of seeing Barbie multiple times are -500. Take that to the bank.
Were 40-35-1 for the season. Let’s break down some wagers you can check on your phone between handfuls of theater popcorn.
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Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
Orioles ML (+130)
Let’s cut straight to the point. The Orioles are red-hot. The Rays are ice cold. I’d be lying if I said that wasn’t the basis for this lean. In fact, after dropping last night’s extra innings thriller, Tampa has lost five in a row and sit 3-12 in the month of July. Why is that? Well, injuries to the pitching staff haven’t helped, but mostly it’s been the decline of a once seemingly unstoppable lineup. In that same 15-game span, the Rays sport an AL-low .213 batting average, which equates out to a paltry 81 wRC+. In layman’s terms, Tampa has lost the ability to score runs.
That hasn’t been an issue for Baltimore. Nothing really appears to be an issue for Baltimore, honestly. The team is 10-2 in its past 12 contests and, for the season as a whole, 17-13 in matchups as a road underdog — the fourth-highest winning percentage within that split. The Orioles have also been able to rely on surprisingly stable starting pitching, particularly when Kyle Bradish has been taking the bump. The RHP has looked incredible across his last nine outings, registering a 2.17 ERA to go along with a 0.96 WHIP and 2.75 FIP. Baltimore is 6-3 in those games.
Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins
Braxton Garrett to Record a Win: Yes (+145)
With the Marlins heavily favored in this spot, we’ll have to get a little creative. Fortunately, Braxton Garrett has been quite good so far in 2023. The former first-round pick has outperformed his modest surface stats, pitching to a 3.27 SIERA and a 3.36 FIP across his 97.0 innings of work. That success is strongly correlated with Garrett’s pinpoint command. The 25-year-old is not only walking just 4.0% of opponents this season — a figure which sits in the 97th percentile of pitchers — he’s also managed a noteworthy 26.6% strikeout rate and 6.63 K/BB ratio. He’s another promising young arm in a Miami system that seemingly produces a never-ending supply.
Garrett is left-handed, as well. That’s crucial when it comes to facing the Rockies. Let me clarify. You don’t need to be a southpaw to look great against Colorado — especially on the road where the team is 14-33 — yet it certainly helps. The Rockies enter Friday in possession of league-worst marks in both OPS (.667) and wRC+ (65) versus LHPs. I’d expect their lineup to continue to struggle to score runs, while the Marlins should have little issue with Peter Lambert and his career 7.17 ERA. As long as they grab an early lead, Garrett is in the clear.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
Lance Lynn Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-165)
I know. I know. This is a parlay piece more than it’s a standalone wager, but it’s Friday and I have a bachelor’s party I have to leave for. Forgive me for plucking the low-hanging fruit for the first time this season.
While Lynn is still surrendering home runs at a dangerous rate, the veteran has had little issue racking up strikeouts in his recent outings, pitching to an eye-popping 36.7% strikeout rate across his last five starts. Lynn went over this prop in four of those appearances, with his lone failure coming against the Braves — who happen to own the league’s fourth-lowest strikeout rate over the past 30 days (20.0%). That is not the case with his matchup this evening. No team has struck out at a higher rate than the Twins in 2023 (27.0%) and that figure grows even higher versus specifically right-handed opponents (27.4%).
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
