The NASCAR summer schedule is in full swing. The circuit bounces between the Midwest, South and Northeast. Each track is unique and none more unique than Pocono — better known as the Tricky Triangle. As always, trust the data but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series HighPoint.com 400 at Pocono.
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Pocono can be strange. The best car does not always win. Which is strange because the track isn’t very racey. Passing is limited. The best car has a clear advantage, and yet Pocono isn’t always won by the best car. There is a reason why Pocono is called the Tricky Triangle.
Last season, Ross Chastain wrecked battling for the lead with less than 20 laps remaining. Denny Hamlin — the driver that wrecked Chastain — was stripped of the win and was disqualified for illegal equipment (DraftKings Sportsbook honored the win and paid out both Hamlin win picks and Chase Elliott win picks). In Pocono race two in 2021, Kyle Busch won a fuel mileage race in a car with a broken transmission. That wild finish wasn’t even the craziest finish of the weekend. Kyle Larson blew a tire on the last lap while leading the first race of the Pocono doubleheader.
Race Winner — HighPoint.com 400
Denny Hamlin +550
Early in Hamlin’s career, Pocono was his playground. He won at Pocono twice in his rookie season in 2006, and again in 2009 and 2010. Then, he went on a decade-long drought. What happened? Just before Hamlin returned to victory lane in 2019, Hamlin hinted that a win was coming soon. How did he know?
Pocono was repaved in 2012. Hamlin understood the worn out flat corners at the original Pocono. The repave erase his advantage. Fast forward to 2019, and seven Pennsylvania winters later, and the old track was back. Hamlin won at Pocono in 2019, 2020, and unofficially in 2022. Also, when he’s not winning, another JGR Toyota is. Unofficially, JGR has won eight of the last 10 Pocono races.
Bubba Wallace +2800
Fuel mileage, stages and weather all play a part in determining the results at Long Pond, PA. This isn’t a plate race, but there is just enough variability that the long shots have a chance. It’s risky to avoid betting on the JGR Toyotas. They win at Pocono a lot, but they don’t pay that great. And long shots have won at Pocono in recent history. Chris Buescher won a weather-shortened race with little Front Row Motorsports. Ryan Blaney won at Pocono driving for the Wood Brothers.
Why not take a chance on Bubba? This race favors equipment over skill. His odds reflect his skills gap too much. He may not be Hamlin, but that doesn’t matter at Pocono. His 23XI Toyota will have close to the same amount of speed as the JGR Toyotas. The right strategy call could be all of the difference.
Check back later this week for additional NASCAR matchup bets and prop bets as they become available on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Race Winner — HighPoint.com 400
Kyle Larson +750
This pick goes against the grain. Typically, picking the fastest car is wise. It’s an effective strategy at Pocono, but the Tricky Triangle sprinkles in some randomness. The best are not mandatory this weekend. That being said, Larson is due at Pocono. He was good at Pocono driving for Chip Ganassi but he’s been very close to a win with Hendrick. He blew a tire while leading the last lap at Pocono in 2021 (his Hendrick teammate, Alex Bowman, took the win) and was the runner-up in the second race of the doubleheader. His other teammate, Chase Elliott, won the 2022 race while Larson earned a top-5 finish. He’s close and Hendrick has speed at Pocono.
Kyle Busch +550
His 2021 Pocono win was lucky. It was also unlucky. His transmission was busted. He couldn’t get through the gears. Nevertheless, he found a way to win. That’s what happens when a driver masters a track — four Pocono wins since 2017. Before the JGR DQ’s were handed out at Pocono last season, Busch had earned his fourth runner-up finish and 12th top-5 finish. A lot of his Pocono success is team related, but RCR and crew chief Randall Burnett built a fast Chevy for Pocono last season. When Hamlin and Busch forfeited their finishing positions, Tyler Reddick in the No. 8 RCR Chevy finished second.
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All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
