10 games are taking place this Monday night starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s take a look at some bets I like tonight on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Baltimore Orioles
The Pick: Freddie Freeman over 1.5 bases +100
Freeman and the Dodgers will be taking on Grayson Rodriguez, who is being called up to make this start for the Orioles. He’s been fantastic in the minors but it hasn’t translated to the majors in the 10 starts we’ve seen. One of his biggest issues has been left-handed bats, which he has a .466 wOBA, an 8.60 FIP and eight of the 13 home runs he’s allowed. These numbers is what has me on Freeman to go over 1.5 bases at even money.
Freeman has gone over this that number in 44 of the 92 times he’s played, good for 48% of the season. Specifically in the month of July, Freeman has been hitting for a healthy dose of power. Of the 12 hits he has, seven of them have gone for extra bases with four doubles and three home runs. I think Freeman cashes this for us tonight against Rodriguez.
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees
The Pick: Angels Team Total over 4.5 runs -105
It’s hard to have much confidence in Luis Severino, who is scheduled to take the mound for the Yankees. He’s been nothing short of a disaster thus far, sporting a 7.38 ERA with a 7.01 xERA and a 6.38 FIP through 42.2 innings. As if the huge jump in walks (4 BB/9) wasn’t bad enough, his 2.3 HR/9 is nearly double he’s ever allowed in his entire career. So when I went to check the Angels team total, I was surprised to see it at 4.5 runs at -105. I was expecting either 4.5 with some heavy juice like -145, or at 5.5 at even money. So, grabbing this at -105 is certainly a bet I want to take.
It’s not just Severino either, the Yankees bullpen has been very shaky as well. In the month of July, not only have the pitched the fourth most innings, the 5.71 ERA and 5.51 FIP are both amongst the highest over that span. In their return from the All-Star break, which did take place at Coors Field, the Yankees bullpen allowed 10 runs on 14 hits through 10.2 innings. I think this is a great spot to bank the Angels team total.
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
The Pick: Jordan Lyles over 2.5 earned runs allowed -125
I understand if you’re not exactly looking to bet something positive to do with the Tigers. But, this has been a bet that’s cashed almost every single time this season. Doesn’t mean it’s an AUTOMATIC, but it’s been damn close. Of the 17 starts that Lyles has made, this bet has hit in 14 of them. Yup, Lyles has allowed at least three earned runs in 14 of the 17 starts he’s made. One of those starts was against the Tigers last month, when they tagged him for three through six innings. Lyles gets progressively worse as the game goes on, as his ERA jumps from 5.29 the first time though, 6.75 the second time and 7.33 the third. Lefties have been more of a nuisance for him, posting a .361 wOBA with 12 of the 20 home runs allowed. Let’s cash this one more time tonight.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
