The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: $3M Fantasy Golf Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry] (PGA)
The Field
The field for The Open Championship consists of approximately 156 golfers and will feature a cutline of the top 70 and ties for the weekend. The field has lots of international qualifiers attached to it but still features one of the best fields in all of golf. All of the top 10 players in the OWGR will be in attendance this week, including last year’s Open winner and current No. 7 player in the world, Cameron Smith.
In addition to Smith, we have all the winners from 2017-2021 in Jordan Spieth, Francesco Molinari, Shane Lowry and Collin Morikawa teeing it up. One of the more exciting features about this year’s Open Championship for DFS is that the salary structure on DraftKings has shifted to where you can now roster players at $5,500-$6,000. Using one of these sub-$6,000 players could provide huge flexibility in your lineups and for that reason I’ve highlighted a few who could be useful in the sections below.
The Course
Royal Liverpool (at Hoylake)—Hoylake, England
Par 71— 7,383 yards
Royal Liverpool is a shorter par 71 that measures around 7,383 yards. The course was redesigned in the early 1900s by Harry Colt and has seen more redesigns over the past couple of decades that have worked to shape the original vision of the course into the natural environment while also improving its routing for the modern game.
The venue sits on a flat piece of land that skirts the sea just outside of Liverpool and Hoylake, and at first glance doesn’t look all that interesting. The start and finish of the course are exceedingly flat and were built over a former race track, so some of the crazy bounces that you saw last season at St. Andrews likely won’t materialize here. However, Liverpool isn’t without its quirks. The course is exceedingly more technical than many Open designs as it has several severe doglegs mixed into the routing and also contains many smaller greens that require pinpoint accuracy.
Liverpool’s fairways are also more narrow than most Open venues and are rife with the odd gorse bush, pot bunker and even a couple of internal out-of-bounds areas that will penalize misses severely and test a player’s courage off the tee.
To offset these hazards, the course does have some scoring holes built in. Two of the four par 5s will likely play under 550 yards for the week and there are two par 4s that play well under 400 yards (and may be reachable off the tee by some). However, the par 3s will be challenging for the players, most notably the short par 3 15th hole. Little Eye, as it’s affectionately named, will play at just 130-140 yards but has the smallest green on the course and penalty areas lurking on numerous sides. Given its location on the back nine, the hole could play a similar role in deciding the eventual champion that the 17th at TPC Sawgrass does at THE PLAYERS.
Liverpool played somewhat softer in 2014, thanks to the rain, but one note about the leaderboard that season was how closely it aligned with many of the leaderboards that have formed at TPC Sawgrass over the past decade. The top five at the Open from 2014 contained four past PLAYERS winners as well as Jim Furyk, who had finished inside the top five at Sawgrass on five separate occasions. Additionally, if we move down the 2014 leaderboard at Liverpool and into the top 30, we see plenty of names who have contended at Sawgrass over the past decade. Those names include Ben Martin, Chris Kirk, Charl Schwartzel and Ryan Moore.
This is all to say that while Royal Liverpool will still have several Open Championship characteristics, it also may, in fact, cater more to the consistent ball strikers and around-the-green specialists who can manage their way around a shorter, more technical U.S.-style venue.
As always with the Open, the weather will play a huge role in how the course actually plays and who the winner is. Day 1 and 2 draw times played a huge role in deciding the winner here in 2014 and while the weather doesn’t look to bad for 2023, don’t be shocked if some wind or rain swoops in to change the dynamics of this event at some point over the four days.
2023 weather outlook: The weather for this week hasn’t materialized into much so far. There is a little pre-event rain expected which could soften up the course but the wind for the first two days looks stable in that it won’t cause a huge disruption in scoring. Thursday may see heavier gusts than Friday although it is expected that the gusts on the first day will be constant in the a.m. and p.m. Day 2 has relatively calmer conditions, especially in the morning. It’s possible that an early Friday tee time could be advantageous if the forecast holds, as it could give the players in the early Friday wave the ability to take on the course with little to no wind at all. Needless to say, given the venue and locale, it’s necessary to keep checking forecasts this week up until lock as all of what was laid out above could change in an instant.
Recent winners
2022—Cameron Smith -20 (over Cameron Young -19)
2021—Collin Morikawa -15 (over Jordan Spieth -13)
2019 – Shane Lowry – 15 (over Tommy Fleetwood -9)
2018 – Francesco Molinari -8 (over Justin Rose and three others -6)
2017 – Jordan Spieth -12 (over Matt Kuchar -9)
*2014 – Rory McIlroy -17 (over Rickie Fowler -15)
*Held at Hoylake
Winning Trends
- Six of the past 11 winners of The Open Championship have been age 35 or older; seven of the past 11 have been age 32 or older.
- Nine of the past 10 winners of The Open Championship had recorded a T20 or better in one of the year’s first two major championships, in the year of their victory. Four of the past five winners had recorded a T11 or better in one of the year’s first three majors.
- Fourteen of the past 17 winners of The Open Championship had a T9 or better finish at this event in a previous year prior to winning.
- Four of the past five winners had played in The Open Championship at least four times prior to winning.
Winners Stats and Course Overview
2022 Winner: Cameron Smith (20-under par)
2022 lead-in form (10 – MC – 48 – 13 -13)
- We don’t have a ton of past data to look back on since The Open doesn’t track Strokes Gained data. That being said, certain trends among winners and high finishers are out there. The past six winners have all ranked 23rd or better in the year of their win in Strokes Gained: Approach, with 2017 winner Jordan Spieth ($9,700) ranking first in this category and 2018 winner Francesco Molinari ($6,300) ranking 10th.
- Links golf often isn’t as much about length off the tee as placement, so emphasizing great iron players this week seems like a solid start. Morikawa ranked top five in Greens hit in 2021 and Cameron Smith ranked fifth in SG: APP stats in 2022.
- The past few Open Championship winners have also emphasized how important scrambling can be, and is, at this event. Shane Lowry ($9,100) led the field in SG: OTT stats at the 2019 Open, but also was second in scrambling for the week. Morikawa was first in scrambling for the week of his win at St. George’s.
- In terms of leadup, the last five winners all came in with signs they were playing well. Each of the five gained 4.0 strokes or more on approach in at least one of their previous five starts before winning this event.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them. This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value comparative to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Tyrrell Hatton +2200 and $9,400
Comparables:
Min Woo Lee +6500 and $7,700
Comparables:
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
HORSES FOR COURSES
**With the course being played on this week only being used every 10 years or so, we’ll be looking instead at past Open Championship form instead.
1. Rory McIlroy ($11,900; best finishes: win-2014, T2-2018): McIlroy has racked up lots of top finishes at this event over the past five years or so. The winner of the 2014 Open at Hoylake has six finishes of T5 or better over his past nine Open starts, including a T2 in 2018. Over 13 career Open Championships, McIlroy has only missed the cut twice and one was at Carnoustie in his first Open in 2007.
2. Jordan Spieth ($9,700; best finishes: win-2017, T2-2015): The 2017 winner of this event has now finished T20 or better at this championship in six of the past seven years and has never missed a cut in eight Open Championship starts. He leads the field in Strokes Gained stats at The Open since 2017.
3. Adam Scott ($7,900; best finishes: second-2012, T3-2013): Since 2010, Scott has made the cut in 11 of the past 12 Open Championships and has four top-10 finishes to his credit over that span. That includes a second-place finish in 2012 when he famously bogeyed the last four holes to lose by a shot. He was T17 in 2018 at Carnoustie and T15 at this event last season.
4. Justin Rose ($8,000; best finishes: T2-2018): The Englishman finished T2 here in 2018 and T6 in 2016. He’s made the cut in his last seven Open Championship appearances and has played well in spurts this season, posting top-10 finishes at the PGA Championship and PLAYERS.
5. Louis Oosthuizen ($6,900; best finishes: win-2010): Oosthuizen won this event in dominant fashion in 2010 and also finished T3 in 2021. The veteran South African has started to pick up his game a touch of late, and grabbed a top-five finish at the latest LIV Golf event in London two weeks ago.
RECENT FORM
1. Rory McIlroy ($11,900; win-T7): McIlroy finally broke through for his first win of the season last week in Scotland. He handled the final round conditions beautifully down the stretch and looks primed for another run at a major this week.
2. Scottie Scheffler ($12,500; T3-T3): Scheffler continued his insane run, posting his seventh top-five finish in a row. It’s hard to quantify exactly how elite he’s been over this run.
3. Robert MacIntyre ($6,800; 2-T3): MacIntyre put in a spirited final round last week and would have won his national open if not for some final hole heroics by McIlroy. MacIntyre has finished top five now in each of his last two starts.
4. Denny McCarthy ($7,300; T6-T7): McCarthy has had a fire summer. The American took last week off but finished top 10 in each of his last two starts, including a T6 at the John Deere.
5. Brian Harman ($7,300; T12 – T9): Harman comes in looking like a potential dark horse challenger for this week. He’s gained over 4.0 strokes on approach in two of his last three starts.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Make amends with McIlroy
Despite coming in with a salary that puts him just below $12,000 in price, there is little doubt that fading Rory McIlroy ($11,900) this week could be an expensive venture. On top of having some of the best recent form in the field, McIlroy has also just been a top 10 machine at this event, with six finishes of T5 or better at the last nine Opens. With some extra flexible pricing available for this week, McIlroy feels like a must to build around for this format. Underneath him, both Tom Kim ($8,100) and Justin Rose ($8,000) look like solid values in the $8K range. Rose did miss the cut last week, but has shown up at multiple big events this season and played well three starts ago in England. Kim was in contention last week and looks well underpriced given the improvement in form at $8,100. Other targets for this format include Ryan Fox ($7,400), Brian Harman ($7,300) and Chris Kirk ($7,000).
Tournaments: Can’t overlook Cantlay
Patrick Cantlay ($9,900) got off to a horrific start last week in Scotland, losing over 2.0 strokes putting in his first round. He fought back on Friday but missed the cut by one stroke. That will likely make him somewhat of an avoidance target for many, but the MC really should be looked at with a grain of salt. He gained over 7.0 strokes on approach at the Travelers and has been top 15 at each of the year’s first three majors. He’ll be a good low-owned target for bigger fields. Bryson DeChambeau ($8,800) is another player who may not get a ton of love, simply because of the venue. The American finished T8 at this event last season (his best-ever finish) and has been playing great golf over on the LIV Tour. Other targets for this format include Sam Burns ($8,500), Si Woo Kim ($7,300), Thorbjorn Olesen ($6,600) and Emiliano Grillo ($6,600). Some under-$6K names to look into include Jorge Campillo ($5,700), Matthew Southgate ($5,600) and Marc Warren ($5,600).
MY PICK: Tommy Fleetwood ($9,300)
We’ve been through the gamut with Tommy Fleetwood in 2023. He came close at the Valspar in March, had an agonizingly tough playoff loss in Canada and then posted what was perhaps the round of the year to finish off his U.S. Open, where he finished T5. The Englishman proved his mettle again last week shooting up from the depths of the leaderboard on Saturday with a third-round 64.
Now we come to The Open Championship, an event where Fleetwood has experienced arguably his greatest major success as a pro and one where he has landed two top-five finishes in the last four years.
As Walter White once said: “We’re just getting started, nothing stops this train, nothing.”
There is zero point in abandoning Fleetwood when he is playing this well and on the eve of starting the major where he’s done some of his finest work. For DFS, he’s also priced under a couple of other Englishmen whom he’s outperformed of late, making him a decent enough value and player who isn’t likely to get too over-owned in big fields. For betting, Fleetwood’s +2500 line may even rise as the week goes on and is still bigger than what he went off at last week, in an event that features many of the same players.
MY SLEEPER: Byeong Hun An ($7,000)
There is a lot to like about Benny An this week, both for betting and DFS purposes. The South Korean stormed out to a lead last week in the first round, and a switch to a longer putter a few weeks ago seems to have been a huge positive for him, overall. It was also encouraging to see him stay strong with that club in tough conditions in round four, when he again gained over a stroke putting on the day.
An has displayed an elite off-the-tee game most of the season (he gained 5.2 strokes off the tee last week) so the fact the rest of his game is starting to pop should have him firmly on our radar. You may not think of him as a major contender but 2023 will mark his ninth career start at the Open and, interestingly enough, he had his best finish ever at this major at Royal Liverpool way back in 2014 when he finished T26 (he also finished 26th at The Open in 2021).
An’s not likely to garner much attention this week in DFS — especially given the fact he only qualified last week — so we can expect lower ownership across the board in larger field tournaments. For betting, he’ll also make for a nice upside target in the top 20 markets where his recent form seems likely to carry over and give him a shot at improving on his 2014 finish.
Sub $6,000 Hero Play: Matthew Southgate ($5,600)
If you are looking to make use of the new flexible pricing on DraftKings this week then allow me to introduce you to Matthew Southgate. The Englishman misses his fair share of cuts but his upside when he gets going with irons is tremendous. He shot 61 in the final round of the Made in Himmerland event two weeks ago and is a proven links player who has multiple top-15 finishes at The Open Championship, including a T6 placing from the 2017 event.
Southgate missed the cut last week but gained 3.6 strokes on approach through two rounds and only got undone by poor putting. If he makes the weekend, the 34-year-old has the tools to explode for a big round and potentially vault your team upwards in big-field GPPs. For betting, he’s also an intriguing top 20 target at big +1000 odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: $3M Fantasy Golf Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry] (PGA)
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