After splitting the first two games to start the second half, the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs will each look for a series victory in Sunday’s rubber match. First pitch from Wrigley Field is set for 2:20 p.m. ET. Reliever-turned-starter Kutter Crawford (3-4, 4.11 ERA) will get the ball for the visitors, while the Cubs counter with ace lefty Justin Steele (9-2, 2.56).
Chicago enters as the -140 favorite on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Red Sox at +120. The run total is set at 9.5.
Red Sox-Cubs picks: Sunday, July 16
Injury report
Red Sox
Out: 2B Pablo Reyes (abdomen), RP John Schreiber (shoulder), SS Adalberto Mondesi (knee), RP Richard Bleier (shoulder)
Cubs
Out: SS Dansby Swanson (heel), 3B Nick Madrigal (hamstring), RP Brad Boxberger (forearm)
Starting pitchers
Kutter Crawford vs. Justin Steele
Injuries to several Boston starters forced Crawford into the rotation last month, and it’s been up-and-down for the righty since. Crawford has given up nine runs across 15.2 innings over his last three starts, including three in just four frames last time out against the Texas Rangers. His slider is an elite pitch, but for some reason he’s still leaning too heavily on, ironically, his cutter, which has gotten roughed up to the tune of a .365 average against.
Steele has been sensational all year for Chicago, earning his first All-Star nod in the process. 10 of his 16 outings have been quality starts, and he’s done it as a two-pitch pitcher: The lefty throws fastballs up and sliders down, and he commands each of them well enough to keep batters off-balance consistently. He gave up three runs over six innings against the Milwaukee Brewers in his last start before the break.
Over/Under pick
The first two totals of this series have been 11 and 14, but I’m expecting a lower-scoring affair in Sunday’s finale. Hardly anyone has been able to get to Steele so far this year, and he’s as good a bet to get through six innings with only two or three runs allowed as anyone. He should keep Boston in check, and while Crawford hasn’t been great of late, he’s also yet to allow a truly crooked number, while this Cubs lineup is just 25th in baseball in team OPS against righties so far in July.
Pick: Under 9.5
Moneyline pick
The Cubs have a pretty sizable advantage on the mound on Sunday, and I think that ultimately makes the difference. With another quality start from Steele, Chicago shouldn’t have trouble giving him enough run support to snag the series win.
Pick: Cubs
