Sunday means an early start around MLB, as just about every team gets a matinee start ahead of traveling to next week’s series. That means you’ll need to get those MLB player props in earlier than usual, so here are three plays we recommend for Sunday’s games.
MLB player prop bets: Sunday, July 16
Zach Eflin, over 5.5 strikeouts (-105)
The Kansas City Royals might have the league’s worst lineup at this point, and they’ve been especially bad against righties, striking out a whopping 26% of the time (seventh-highest rate in baseball). Eflin just faced K.C. back in late June and had no problem hitting this total, striking out seven over six innings of work — in fact, he’s cleared this number in four of his last six starts overall. With a 3.25 ERA on the year, the Tampa Bay Rays righty will work plenty deep enough in this game, giving himself lots of opportunities for strikeouts, and it’s hard to see him falling below six.
Joey Votto and TJ Friedl, to record a hit (+100)
Coming off consecutive shutout losses against the divisional rival Milwaukee Brewers, the Cincinnati Reds need a big offensive showing on Sunday afternoon, and I think they’ll get it against Brewers righty Adrian Houser. The sinkerballer hardly ever misses bats (2nd-percentile whiff rate), and pitching to contact usually leads to lots of hits allowed in the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park. Houser has also struggled against lefties this year, allowing a .289/.388/.470 slash line without the platoon advantage — and putting the Reds’ left-handed bats in a great position.
Votto checks that first box, has hit .281 over his last 10 games and has also teed off on Houser during his career, slashing .353/.476/.647 in 21 career plate appeareances. Friedl, meanwhile, has a .298 average and .373 OBP on the year, and he’s hitting .292 against righties. They’re both excellent bets to tally at least one base hit.
Reese Olson, over 4.5 strikeouts (-125)
The righty-heavy Seattle Mariners have struggled against right-handed pitching all year, but especially lately, with an ugly 27.8% strikeout right against righties since the start of July — the third-highest rate in all of baseball. Olson should be able to take full advantage of that on Sunday, as the Detroit Tigers rookie has a 68th-percentile K rate and has cleared this mark in three of his four full starts this season. His slider is a dominant weapon, with a .152 average against and a 40.6% whiff rate, and I expect it chew through Seattle’s bats. Heck, even Michael Lorenzen — a far less strikeout-dependent pitcher — racked up 7 Ks against this Mariners lineup just last night.
