After a well-deserved breather, MLB kicks off its second half with all 30 teams in action on Friday night. That full slate means plenty of opportunities for player prop bets, but with so many options to choose from, how can you narrow it down? Here are three of our favorite plays of the day.
MLB player prop bets: Friday, July 14
Charlie Morton, over 6.5 strikeouts (-110)
Morton went into the All-Star break on a high note, allowing just one run on eight hits over his last 12 innings of work. While this is among the higher strikeout props of the day, the righty has been one of the game’s elite K artists this season, with a 68th-percentile strikeout rate and an 87th-percentile whiff rate. He’s actually cleared this number in seven of his last 11 starts, and he’s a good bet to keep that trending going in a matchup against a Chicago White Sox on Friday night. Chicago’s righty-heavy lineup has the fifth-highest K rate of any team against right-handed pitching since the start of June.
Teoscar Hernandez, over 1.5 total bases (+120)
Hernandez hasn’t quite lived up to expectations so far in his first season in Seattle, but he’s been better of late — he’s slashing a respectable .253/.344/.470 over his last 22 games — and he’s still among the game’s premier lefty-mashers. Hernandez has nearly a 200-point gap in OPS between righties (.698) and lefties (.891) on the year, but luckily for us, he gets to face off against Detroit Tigers southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez on Friday night. Rodriguez looked like he was still knocking the rust off in his first start back from the IL last week, giving up five runs in just four innings to the lowly Oakland A’s. He also boasts an extreme platoon effect (.643 OPS allowed to righties vs. .433 to lefties), and Hernandez has lit him up throughout his career, with eight hits and three homers in 19 at-bats.
Aaron Civale, under 4.5 strikeouts (+105)
Civale is coming off a nine-strikeout performance against the Kansas City Royals, but 1) the Royals hardly count these days and 2) given his 33rd-percentile K rate and 29th-percentile whiff rate, I’m still not buying the Cleveland Guardians righty as much of a strikeout threat. He’s fallen short of this modest number five times in nine starts on the season, and he should come back to Earth against a league-leading Texas Rangers offense that hardly ever strikes out — especially against righties. Texas has the fifth-lowest K rate against right-handed pitching since the start of June, and at plus odds, they have a great chance of holding Civale under five on Friday.
