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UFC 290 Best Bets: Top UFC Picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for UFC 290

UFC 290 Best Bets: Top UFC Picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for UFC 290

Sports Betting Picks UFC

Published:

By: Tim Finnegan

International Fight Week is here! International Fight Week runs in Las Vegas from Monday, July 3 through Sunday, July 9, and is headlined by Saturday’s UFC 290 event from T-Mobile Arena.

T-Mobile Arena was also the site of a legendary win on DraftKings Sportsbook earlier this year. At UFC 285, a DraftKings Sportsbook bettor turned just $1 into nearly $400,000 with a $1 UFC Parlay Bet featuring the following six picks at +39947171 odds:

  • Dricus Du Plessis to Win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2
  • Cody Garbrandt To Win By Decision
  • Bo Nickal to Win by Submission in Round 1
  • Shavkat Rakhmonov to Win by Submission in Round 3
  • Alexa Grasso to Win by Submission in Round 4
  • Jon Jones To Win By Submission

As a result of all of these outcomes hitting in the Parlay Bet, the UFC bettor took home $399,472.71 in one of the greatest wins in sports betting history. Read more about the big UFC parlay hit here!

Saturday’s UFC 290 event features two title fights. The main event is a featherweight title bout between Alexander Volkanovski and Yair Rodriguez. Volkanovski is undefeated in the UFC at featherweight and has won five consecutive featherweight title fights.

The co-main event is a flyweight title fight between Brandon Moreno and Alexandre Pantoja. Pantoja has beaten Moreno twice, although only one of these wins is officially counted on his pro record—the other win was via submission on The Ultimate Fighter. Despite Pantoja holding two wins over Moreno, Moreno enters this fight as the favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook with a moneyline of about -200. Moreno has improved significantly since he last faced Pantoja, which was over five years ago.

Bo Nickal is also back in action at T-Mobile Arena. Nickal is one of the best UFC prospects in recent memory and has steamrolled his competition so far, winning all three of his fights under the UFC umbrella in the first round.

DraftKings is hosting a big fantasy UFC 290 tournament that pays out $750,000 in total prizes, including $200,000 to first place. Enter the contest for only $25 here.

UFC 290 Picks

Same Game Parlay (SGP): Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez

2-Leg SGP

Alexander Volkanovski Moneyline (3 Way)

Exact Method of Victory: Decision

SGP odds: +120

($100 bet pays out $220)

4-Leg SGP

Alexander Volkanovski Moneyline (3 Way)

Exact Method of Victory: Decision

Alexander Volkanovski Most Significant Strikes

Alexander Volkanovski Most Takedowns

SGP odds: +140

($100 bet pays out $240)

A “Significant Strike” is any strike landed at distance, plus power strikes in the clinch and on the ground.

A “Takedown” requires the attempting fighter to initiate a grappling maneuver that ends with them in an established controlling position on the ground.

Alexander Volkanovski is coming off a loss, but he moved up a weight class to fight lightweight champion Islam Makhachev in a fight Volkanovski was not expected to win. Volkanovski gave Makhachev his toughest fight in years and got better as the fight went on, winning the last round on all three of the judges’ scorecards. Volkanovski is dropping back down to featherweight for this fight to defend his title against Yair Rodriguez.

Building a Same Game Parlay (SGP) on DraftKings Sportsbook around Volkanovski is a way to target a higher potential payout than betting on Volkanovski to win alone. Yair Rodriguez is difficult to finish—in 13 UFC fights dating back to 2014, the only time Rodriguez has been finished was due to a doctor stoppage in between rounds due to a cut/swollen eye.

Volkanovski is also not a big finisher—nine of Volkanovski’s last 12 fights have gone the distance. Instead, Volkanovski wins his fights primarily by using his speed to get in and out and land stinging striking volume without getting hit much in return. Volkanovski has landed nearly twice the amount of strikes he has absorbed, an excellent ratio, and has landed over six significant strikes per minute, which is elite striking volume. Volkanovski has recorded more significant strikes than his opponent in all 13 of his UFC fights, even in his loss to Islam Makhachev, where he out-struck Makhachev 70 to 57 in total significant strikes landed.

Volkanovski is also capable of recording takedowns in the right spots. Volkanovski is averaging 1.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, a rate about twice as good as Rodriguez, who is averaging under one takedown per 15 minutes. Rodriguez’s takedown defense is also not great on a rate basis, stopping 63% of opponent takedown attempts. Rodriguez has been taken down at least once in each of his last four fights, and Rodriguez’s opponent has also recorded more takedowns than Rodriguez in each of those four fights. It’s realistic that Volkanovski could mix in some takedowns in this fight to give Rodriguez a different look, which is a strategy Volkanovski used in his win against Chan Sung Jung, where he initiated eight takedown attempts and successfully converted four of them.

Volkanovski is in a strong spot to win this fight by decision, which gets Volkanovski to win down from about -400 on the moneyline to plus money. Adding the most significant strikes and most takedowns legs to this Same Game Parlay (SGP) is also a second option for a higher potential payout.

To place a UFC Same Game Parlay (SGP):

Learn more about SGPs at the DraftKings Sportsbook SGP page!

Play Reignmakers UFC! Open packs or scout, collect and bid on officially licensed UFC cards on the DraftKings Marketplace and battle against other players for prizes in fantasy sports contests!

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.

Tim Finnegan

All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.