After dropping Monday’s series finale against the Houston Astros — their seventh loss in their last 10 — the suddenly slumping Texas Rangers will look to get back on track as they head east to kick off a series with the Boston Red Sox on the Fourth of July. First pitch of Tuesday’s opener is set for 1:35 p.m. ET from Fenway Park. Dane Dunning (7-1, 2.69 ERA) gets the ball for the visitors, while lefty reliever Brennan Bernardino (1-0, 2.49) will serve as the opener of a bullpen game for Boston as they juggle injuries to their starting rotation.
Texas enters as -125 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Red Sox at +105. The run total is set at
Rangers-Red Sox picks: Tuesday, July 4
Injury report
Rangers
Out: RP Jose Leclerc (ankle)
Red Sox
Day to day: SP Garrett Whitlock (elbow)
Out: INF Pablo Reyes (abdomen), RP Joely Rodriguez (shoulder), RP Richard Bleier (shoulder), SP/RP Corey Kluber (shoulder), SP Tanner Houck (facial fracture), C Reese McGuire (oblique), SP Chris Sale (shoulder), INF Yu Chang (hamate), RP John Schreiber (shoulder), SS Trevor Story (elbow)
Starting pitchers
Dane Dunning vs. Brennan Bernardino
The Rangers needed Dunning to step up after the injury to Jacob deGrom, and the righty has come through, allowing more than three runs just once in 10 starts while never lasting fewer than five innings. He’s coming off probably his best outing of the year, striking out 10 and allowing just two runs in 8.2 innings against the Detroit Tigers last week. It’s not the most explosive arsenal, but the righty pumps strikes with his sinker and cutter to get lots of ground balls that allow him to work deep into games.
With Chris Sale, Tanner Houck and now Garrett Whitlock sidelined due to injury, Boston is piecing together their rotation with duct tape as we approach the All-Star break. It figures to be a bullpen day for the Red Sox on Tuesday, with the lefty Bernardino at the front of the line. This will be the 31-year-old’s first Major League start, but he doesn’t figure to last very long, given that he’s yet to pitch more than two innings in a game this season. He last pitched in Sunday’s series finale against Toronto, allowing one run in 1.1 innings of work. With long man Nick Pivetta also throwing four innings on Sunday, Boston doesn’t have much in the way of bulk options either.
Over/Under pick
This is a big number, but understandably so given how hitter-friendly Fenway Park plays and the uncertainty surrounding Boston’s pitching situation. Pitchers like Dunning who don’t produce a lot of strikeouts can be vulnerable at Fenway, which turns balls in play into hits as well as just about any park this side of Coors Field, while I expect the Rangers to bust out the bats after putting up 11 runs in a losing effort on Monday. If Boston gives us just three or four runs, this over should cash.
Pick: Over 9.5
Moneyline pick
I’m not quite sure how Boston is going to be able to piece together nine innings this afternoon. The Red Sox rank 14th in bullpen ERA this year, and this would be a lot to ask of any staff, especially against Texas’ powerful lineup. With Dunning doing his usual yeoman’s work on the other side, I’m backing the Rangers in a spot where they desperately need a win.
Pick: Rangers
