After rallying for a dramatic win on Monday night, the New York Yankees will be gunning for a big series win against the division rival Baltimore Orioles in a Fourth of July matinee. First pitch from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx is set for 1:05 p.m. ET. Kyle Gibson (8-5, 4.66 ERA) gets the ball for Baltimore, while New York counters with young righty Clarke Schmidt (3-6, 4.37).
New York enters as -125 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Orioles at +105. The run total is set at 9.
Orioles-Yankees picks: Tuesday, July 4
Injury report
Yankees
Out: OF Aaron Judge (toe), RP Jonathan Loaisiga (elbow), RP Ryan Weber (forearm), OF Greg Allen (hip), DH Willie Calhoun (quad)
Orioles
Day to day: OF Austin Hays (hip)
Out: RP Mychal Givens (shoulder), RP Dillon Tate (forearm), RP Keegan Akin (back), C James McCann (ankle), RP Austin Voth (elbow), SP John Means (elbow), 1B Ryan Mountcastle (illness)
Starting pitchers
Kyle Gibson vs. Clarke Schmidt
After a solid first couple of months, Gibson struggled mightily in June, posting a 6.84 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over five starts. His last one was the ugliest of all, as the righty coughed up six runs on nine hits and a walk in 4.2 innings against the Cincinnati Reds last week. The righty’s slider has long been an elite offering, and this year is no exception, with a .191 batting average against and a 47.5% whiff rate. But he only throws it 17% of the time, and his lack of an offering to lefties helps explain why he has such extreme platoon splits (.797 OPS allowed vs. .695 to righties).
Schmidt’s had the opposite trajectory: After an awful first six weeks, the righty has pitched to a 2.55 ERA — including 5.1 innings of three-run ball last time out against the Oakland Athletics. He’s still not pitching particularly deep into games, and getting lefties out remains something of an issue, but he’s avoiding the heart of the plate much more often and allowing less loud contact as a result (after coughing up seven homers in April, he’s allowed just three across May and June). Schmidt isn’t the most electric option, but he’s turned into a perfectly fine Major League starter, which is a win for a Yankees team dealing with lots of uncertainty in their rotation
Over/Under pick
The O’s bats have gone dormant of late, as Monday night’s loss marked the sixth time in their last eight games that they’ve scored three or fewer runs. Harrison Bader’s dramatic eighth-inning homer, meanwhile got the Yankees to six runs for just the sixth time since the start of June, as New York’s offense ranks among the league’s worst since Aaron Judge went down. Gibson hasn’t been great of late, but with how weak the Yankee bats have been, I’m betting that he can at least keep them in check enough to help this under hit.
Pick: Under 9
Moneyline pick
New York needed an improbable rally to grab a win last night, and it’s hard to see why they should be favored over just about anyone right now with how poorly they’ve been hitting. The Yankees have a league-worst 77 wRC+ against right-handers since the start of June, and while the O’s lineup has been slumping of late, they have far more offensive talent than the Yankees do. I still don’t think there’s a ton of difference between Gibson and Schmidt in terms of pure talent, so give me the team with better odds.
Pick: Orioles
