The Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals have reversed roles from what we’ve seen in past seasons entering their Monday series opener in Miami with the Marlins in the thick of the playoff picture while the Cardinals have the third-worst record in the National League.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins (-120, 8)
Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas comes in having had had recent struggles with at least five runs allowed at least five runs in three of his last four starts, posting a 4.44 ERA for the season with just 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings.
The offense behind Mikolas has also struggled, averaging 3.9 runs per game in their past 33 games, the fewest runs per game since May 24 in the National League.
The issues on offense are also far more pronounced on the road than at home with the Cardinals averaging the second-fewest runs per game on the road of any National League team with 4.1 compared to averaging 5.2 runs per game at home, which ranks third in the National League and their batting average goes from .262 at home to .240 on the road.
Marlins starter Braxton Garrett will look to continue the Cardinals offensive woes, entering having allowed three total earned runs across his last four starts and has allowed two runs or fewer in 13 of his 16 apperances this season.
Garrett’s ERA is at 3.53 and not significantly lower due to one bad start he had against National League East leading Braves where he allowed 11 runs in 4 1/3 innings on May 3. With that start removed, Garrett has a 2.56 ERA and even with that outlier start included, owns a 3.28 fielding independent with 10.1 strikeouts and 1.7 walks per nine innings.
Though the Marlins have had issues putting up runs, ranking last in the National League in runs per game with four, they have gotten on base with the National League’s best home batting average at .272.
With the Cardinals not having an active relief pitcher with an ERA below 3.50 with at least seven innings logged this season coupled with opponents hitting .288 off of Mikolas this season, the Marlins will lend enough support to get Garrett the win.
The Play: Marlins -120
