The San Diego Padres (38-45) and Cincinnati Reds (44-39) will go for a series victory on Sunday afternoon. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Pedro Avila will make his first MLB appearance of the year and just his third career start for San Diego as Yu Darvish battles flu-like symptoms, while Cincy sends rookie sensation Andrew Abbott (4-0, 1.21 ERA) to the mound.
The Reds enter as -145 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Padres at +125. The run total is set at 11.
Padres-Reds picks: Sunday, July 2nd
Injury report
Padres
Day to day: SP Yu Darvish (illness)
Out: RP Drew Carlton (elbow), 3B Eguy Rosario (ankle), LF Preston Tucker (foot), RP Reiss Knehr (elbow), RP Steven Wilson (pectoral), RP Robert Suarez (elbow), C Luis Campusano (thumb), RP Drew Pomeranz (elbow)
Reds
Day to day: RP Tony Santillan (hamstring)
Out: SP Ben Lively (pectoral), RP Reiver Sanmartin (elbow), SP Vladimir Gutierrez (elbow), RP Tejay Antone (elbow), SP Hunter Greene (hip), SP Justin Dunn (shoulder), RP Derek Law (elbow), RP Casey Legumina (shoulder), SP Nick Lodolo (lower leg), SP Connor Overton (elbow)
Starting pitchers
Pedro Avila vs. Andrew Abbott
A member of the Padres system since 2019, Avila has made four career Major League appearances, including two starts, over parts of three seasons. He last pitched for San Diego in 2022, posting a 4.50 ERA with five strikeouts in four innings of work. He’s been a member of the team’s Triple-A rotation so far this season, pitching to a bloated 8.49 mark across 46.2 innings.
Abbott will make the sixth start of his rookie season, and he’s been excellent through that limited sample size. The top prospect didn’t allow a single run through his first three appearances and has now given up just four runs over 29.2 innings.
Over/Under pick
Yesterday’s final was 12-5, and I’m backing the over again at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park on Sunday despite Abbott’s presence on the mound. Avila has been awful at Triple-A this year and should get roughed up by Cincy’s potent lineup, while Abbott is due for a bit of regression after his hot start and will face a Padres lineup that can chew up lefties (just look at what they did to southpaw Brandon Williamson on Saturday).
Pick: Over 11
Moneyline pick
Much as I’m expecting a slugfest today, the advantage on the mound is just too stark to not back the Reds in this spot — we can’t expect much at all from Avila, and if he only lasts two or three innings, the underbelly of the Padres bullpen has been a real weakness for the team to this point in the season.
Pick: Reds